2112 Paden St · Jackson, MS 39204

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1954 0.26 ac lot Est $47k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home for first time homebuyer or investor. Home has long time tenant and located on a large lot

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1954

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $35,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$46,583) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #308 of 375 statewide, top 83%, 199 students, 100% FRL); Peeples Middle School (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 179 statewide, top 79%, 298 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($30k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.23%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,583
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2112 Paden St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,259 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$28	94
545 Merigold Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (-3%)	4mo	$79,000	$65	77
2261 Paden St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,369 (+9%)	3mo	$70,000	$51	65
1906 Shamrock Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,156 (-8%)	5mo	$59,000	$51	64
2364 Coronet Pl	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (-6%)	6mo	$74,500	$63	64
1904 Willaneel Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,091 (-13%)	6mo	$15,000	$14	60
2524 Coronet Pl	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (-6%)	3mo	$30,000	$25	55
936 Winn St	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,196 (-5%)	6mo	$44,500	$37	48
2005 Oakhurst Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,433 (+14%)	4mo	$52,500	$37	46
931 Stuart St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,363 (+8%)	3mo	$32,500	$24	42
1725 Camellia Ln	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,134 (-10%)	3mo	$40,000	$35	41
2081 Shady Lane Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+13%)	4mo	$12,000	$8	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $62,002
• Equity at exit: $31,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.0%
• Equity multiple: 18.14×
• Total profit: $168,016
• Equity at exit: $67,997

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $592	+0% $582	+5% $572	+10% $562
Rent	-10% $494	-5% $538	+0% $582	+5% $625	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $591	base $582	+0.5pp $573	+1.0pp $563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2401 Coronet Pl Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	0.41mi
245 Shady Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,100	$0.73	24d	1	0.47mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	44d	1	0.73mi
1645 Camellia Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,200	$0.95	14d	1	0.75mi
225 W McDowell Rd Apt L2 Jackson, MS	1.0	1.0	896	$750	$0.84	21d	1	0.83mi
225 W McDowell Rd Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$975	$1.08	44d	18	0.83mi
2858 Fairhill Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$825	$0.92	44d	1	0.95mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	1.13mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	14d	1	1.13mi
2786 Brookwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	1.16mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	24d	1	1.22mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	14d	1	1.22mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	14d	1	1.27mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	24d	1	1.27mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	24d	1	1.30mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	14d	1	1.30mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	1.43mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	14d	1	1.49mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-19
   listed $35,000 Active
3. 2023-05-19
   soldstatus
4. 1999-07-21
   soldstatus
5. 1983-05-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,122 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $6,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $5,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-11-19 Listed $35,000 MLSU
• 2023-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.