11150 State Route 70 · Canaseraga, NY 14884

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · Manufactured public records · 664 Days on market

Built 1961 0.50 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is as/is basically a "shell" on land with beautiful views of Swain Mountain (1/4 mile to resort). Potential rehab and keep OR Rip & strip and Airbnb/VRBO.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 664 days

Tags

• POTENTIAL REHAB OPTION
• AIRBNB/VRBO POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($792 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#937 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Canaseraga Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #430 of 755 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 664 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 664 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.21%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $30,415
• Equity at exit: $18,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.37×
• Total profit: $72,263
• Equity at exit: $31,048

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14884

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $325

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 664 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 663 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 662 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 661 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 659 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 658 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 655 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 654 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 653 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 652 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 649 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 648 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 647 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 646 DOM
15. 2025-07-10
    price $35,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Property is as/is basically a "shell" on land with beautiful views of Swain Mountain (1/4 mile to resort). Potential rehab and keep OR Rip & strip and Airbnb/VRBO.

16. 2024-08-23
    listed $45,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Property is as/is basically a "shell" on land with beautiful views of Swain Mountain (1/4 mile to resort). Potential rehab and keep OR Rip & strip and Airbnb/VRBO.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$761
• − Management: −$761
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $4,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$991
• After-tax cash flow: $3,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canaseraga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606360
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,247
• Composite: 46.07/100
• National rank: #5487
• State rank: #430 of 755 in NY

Livability — Canaseraga

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #937
• US rank: #18234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 363

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Current HPI: 140.3916
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $35,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $45,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.