18223 Tupper Bend Ln · Houston, TX 77433

$239,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2010 5,174 sqft lot Est $260k · 8% under $57/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With 1454 Sq. Ft., this one-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The kitchen comes with 30 Birch Harborview Clove cabinets and Black Whirlpool appliances. This lovely home also features two rooms with ceiling fans, and is enriched in Universal Khaki two-tone paint color.

Key facts

• 5,174 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2010

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-652/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kahla Middle (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,176 students, 82% FRL); Cypress Springs H S (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,788 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 43% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,644 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,846
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18223 Tupper Bend Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (0%)	1mo	$239,000	$159	94
18202 Foley Park Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (-8%)	5mo	$260,000	$188	76
18202 Rexine Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,399 (-7%)	4mo	$245,000	$175	74
18519 Avanta Cove Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,463 (-3%)	1mo	$265,000	$181	66
8226 Almera Falls Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+2%)	9mo	$265,000	$173	64
18203 Canary Bluff Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (+10%)	7mo	$278,000	$168	60
8251 Sardina Shore Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-12%)	0mo	$235,000	$178	55
7603 Lone Meadow Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (+7%)	3mo	$310,000	$193	55
7714 Sunburst Trail Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,590 (+6%)	1mo	$228,000	$143	53
7527 Livery Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (+7%)	2mo	$264,000	$164	47
18627 White Barnwood	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (+10%)	4mo	$245,000	$148	47
19127 Feather Lance Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (+12%)	7mo	$275,000	$163	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-48,702
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-72,004
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,314/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$57
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,345

Max offer price $229,404

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $13	+0% $-54	+5% $-122	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-144	+0% $-54	+5% $36	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $6	base $-54	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7750 Shavano Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2152	$2,065	$0.96	4d	1	0.37mi
8119 Almera Falls Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,905	$1.25	3d	1	0.40mi
8207 Fairgrove Park Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1947	$2,650	$1.36	8d	1	0.49mi
8207 Fairgrove Park Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1947	$2,650	$1.36	21d	1	0.49mi
7202 Barker Cypress Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,826	$1.62	0d	35	0.85mi
7323 Livery Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,780	$1.17	23d	1	0.86mi
18531 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,799	$1.06	23d	1	0.87mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	12d	1	0.94mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	8d	1	0.94mi
18511 Cypress Steppe Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,400	$1.12	25d	1	0.94mi
17402 Hamilwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	0d	1	1.01mi
18100 West Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1228	$2,605	$2.12	3d	48	1.04mi
7850 Maverick Trace Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1852	$1,875	$1.01	44d	1	1.13mi
18319 Autumn Trails Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1580	$1,845	$1.17	23d	1	1.20mi
18311 Autumn Trails Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,779	$1.16	8d	1	1.21mi
19758 Crossfalls Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,070	$0.96	45d	1	1.21mi
7207 Glenbank Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,100	$1.01	44d	1	1.27mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	44d	1	1.29mi
18015 Autumn Hills Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2163	$2,050	$0.95	44d	1	1.33mi
19738 Tacoma Bluff Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2238	$5,000	$2.23	23d	1	1.34mi
17719 Glenpatti Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,669	$1.19	8d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $57 · $684/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $239,000 Active
4. 2010-08-31
   soldstatus 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   With 1454 Sq. Ft., this one-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The kitchen comes with 30 Birch Harborview Clove cabinets and Black Whirlpool appliances. This lovely home also features two rooms with ceiling fans, and is enriched in Universal Khaki two-tone paint color.

5. 2010-06-18
   historical 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   With 1454 Sq. Ft., this one-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The kitchen comes with 30 Birch Harborview Clove cabinets and Black Whirlpool appliances. This lovely home also features two rooms with ceiling fans, and is enriched in Universal Khaki two-tone paint color.

6. 2010-05-21
   listed $118,450 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   With 1454 Sq. Ft., this one-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The kitchen comes with 30 Birch Harborview Clove cabinets and Black Whirlpool appliances. This lovely home also features two rooms with ceiling fans, and is enriched in Universal Khaki two-tone paint color.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,314 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,314 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$5,314
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − HOA: −$684
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$4,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,101
• After-tax cash flow: $449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2010-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-06-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-05-21 Listed $118,450 HARMLS

Property tax history

+21.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,314 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.