203 S Jefferson St · Petersburg, VA 23803

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1860 5,519 sqft lot Est $333k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price reduced $15000.00 9/25/2013 on this claasic 1860's, possibly earlier, Victorian historic home located in the Poplar Lawn Historic District. Completely renovated and move in ready. Located on a corner lot with a culdesac side street. Nice backyard. This is a double house and the other side is also for sale. That side is a total rehab. Live in this side and renovate the other side. Home is located a short walk to Poplar Lawn City Park and the side street is the historic Marshall Street with many restored historic homes. A great friendly neighborhood. Must see to fully appreciate.

Key facts

• 5,519 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1860

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $170k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,106 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,940
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
328 Saint Andrew St	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (+5%)	2mo	$180,000	$80	74
6 S Old Church St	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-2%)	4mo	$280,000	$133	64
510 Byrne St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,296 (+7%)	3mo	$275,000	$120	54
131 Franklin St	0.29mi	4/4.5 (+1)	2,360 (+10%)	5mo	$425,000	$180	51
243 High St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,968 (-8%)	2mo	$262,000	$133	51
104 Center St	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,200 (+2%)	4mo	$339,900	$155	49
724 E Wythe St	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,904 (-11%)	0mo	$300,000	$158	46
731 Harding St	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,000 (-7%)	3mo	$315,000	$158	41
104 St Matthew St	0.72mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,328 (+8%)	3mo	$75,000	$32	41
710 Harding St	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,000 (-7%)	6mo	$314,900	$157	40
123 S Old Church St	0.63mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,840 (-14%)	5mo	$300,000	$163	31
307 Mistletoe St	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,860 (-13%)	4mo	$285,000	$153	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $20,028
• Equity at exit: $62,040

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $85,305
• Equity at exit: $85,635

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,763/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 E Wythe St Unit 1 Petersburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1400	$1,295	$0.93	23d	1	0.07mi
212 E Wythe St Unit 1 Petersburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1400	$1,295	$0.93	43d	1	0.07mi
616 S Jefferson St Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	2400	$1,957	$0.82	3d	1	0.50mi
462 Reservoir Hts Petersburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1640	$1,895	$1.16	23d	1	0.64mi
115 Pine St Unit 115 Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,462	$1.04	43d	1	0.78mi
531 N Azalea Rd Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	23d	1	0.95mi
211 Jefferson Ave Colonial Heights, VA	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,900	$1.26	1d	1	1.04mi
1137 Willcox St Petersburg, VA	4.0	3.0	1872	$2,600	$1.39	43d	1	1.25mi
335 Claremont St Petersburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,500	$1.16	11d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2025-10-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-01
   listed $170,000 Active
3. 2015-03-31
   soldstatus $87,000
4. 2015-03-30
   soldstatus $87,000 Closed 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Price reduced $15000.00 9/25/2013 on this claasic 1860's, possibly earlier, Victorian historic home located in the Poplar Lawn Historic District. Completely renovated and move in ready. Located on a corner lot with a culdesac side street. Nice backyard. This is a double house and the other side is also for sale. That side is a total rehab. Live in this side and renovate the other side. Home is located a short walk to Poplar Lawn City Park and the side street is the historic Marshall Street with many restored historic homes. A great friendly neighborhood. Must see to fully appreciate.

5. 2015-03-06
   status Pending 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Price reduced $15000.00 9/25/2013 on this claasic 1860's, possibly earlier, Victorian historic home located in the Poplar Lawn Historic District. Completely renovated and move in ready. Located on a corner lot with a culdesac side street. Nice backyard. This is a double house and the other side is also for sale. That side is a total rehab. Live in this side and renovate the other side. Home is located a short walk to Poplar Lawn City Park and the side street is the historic Marshall Street with many restored historic homes. A great friendly neighborhood. Must see to fully appreciate.

6. 2014-12-30
   price $89,900 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Price reduced $15000.00 9/25/2013 on this claasic 1860's, possibly earlier, Victorian historic home located in the Poplar Lawn Historic District. Completely renovated and move in ready. Located on a corner lot with a culdesac side street. Nice backyard. This is a double house and the other side is also for sale. That side is a total rehab. Live in this side and renovate the other side. Home is located a short walk to Poplar Lawn City Park and the side street is the historic Marshall Street with many restored historic homes. A great friendly neighborhood. Must see to fully appreciate.

7. 2013-03-18
   listed $97,900 Active 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Price reduced $15000.00 9/25/2013 on this claasic 1860's, possibly earlier, Victorian historic home located in the Poplar Lawn Historic District. Completely renovated and move in ready. Located on a corner lot with a culdesac side street. Nice backyard. This is a double house and the other side is also for sale. That side is a total rehab. Live in this side and renovate the other side. Home is located a short walk to Poplar Lawn City Park and the side street is the historic Marshall Street with many restored historic homes. A great friendly neighborhood. Must see to fully appreciate.

8. 2009-09-22
   historical
9. 2009-09-22
   historical
10. 2008-08-31
    historical
11. 2008-05-12
    historical
12. 2008-05-12
    historical
13. 2008-05-05
    listed $179,500
14. 2008-05-05
    listed $179,500
15. 2008-03-25
    listed $205,000
16. 2008-03-25
    listed $205,000
17. 2007-08-31
    historical
18. 2007-06-29
    historical
19. 2007-06-29
    listed $185,000
20. 2007-04-02
    listed $185,000
21. 2007-04-02
    listed $185,000
22. 2004-01-15
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 2004-01-15
    soldstatus $70,000
24. 2004-01-15
    soldstatus $70,000
25. 2003-12-11
    listed $79,500
26. 2003-12-11
    listed $79,500
27. 2003-12-10
    historical
28. 2003-09-11
    historical
29. 2003-09-10
    listed $79,500
30. 2003-09-10
    historical
31. 2003-09-10
    listed $79,500
32. 2003-09-10
    historical
33. 2003-08-22
    listed $79,500
34. 2003-08-22
    listed $79,500
35. 2003-07-20
    historical
36. 2003-06-09
    historical
37. 2003-03-20
    listed $79,500
38. 2003-03-20
    listed $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,763
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$299
• After-tax cash flow: $1,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,362
• Composite: 28.78/100
• National rank: #6670
• State rank: #131 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petersburg, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Petersburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,488 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 28,401 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 27,279 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 25,877 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 24,288 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Petersburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+72.8) · D 85.8% · R 13.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 72.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+72.8 2020: D+76.5 2016: D+77.0 2012: D+80.4 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+113.8% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $170,000 CVRMLS
• 2015-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-30 Sold (MLS) $87,000 CVRMLS
• 2015-03-06 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2014-12-30 Price Changed $89,900 CVRMLS
• 2013-03-18 Listed $97,900 CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-08-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-05-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-05-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-05-05 Listed $179,500 CVRMLS
• 2008-05-05 Listed $179,500 CVRMLS
• 2008-03-25 Listed $205,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-03-25 Listed $205,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-08-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-06-29 Listed $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-06-29 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-04-02 Listed $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-04-02 Listed $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-15 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-01-15 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-12-11 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-12-11 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-12-10 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-09-11 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-09-10 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-09-10 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-09-10 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-09-10 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-08-22 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-08-22 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-07-20 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-06-09 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-03-20 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-03-20 Listed $79,500 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,763 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.