418/420 Paradise Canyon Dr · Ruidoso, NM 88345

$199,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Other · 34 Days on market

Built 1971 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mountain cabin and a manufactured home. Manufactured has 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, fireplace, and covered front deck. Cabin is a one bedroom, one bath with kitchen, living room and covered front porch. Paved circular driveway, with city utilities and water. A great place to start a rental income legacy or live in one and have income potential in the other.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt circular driveway
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Guest house; Sloped-up lot; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface; Has view; Fire alarm

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Has fireplace with wood-burning insert and blower fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Vista Primary (497 students, 100% FRL); Ruidoso Middle (math 13% / reading 52%, grade F, #10 of 27 statewide, top 35%, 394 students, 100% FRL); Ruidoso High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 532 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 596 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,170/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 156% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.30%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,613
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $18,707
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88345

• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $408	+0% $339	+5% $270	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $168	-5% $253	+0% $339	+5% $425	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $390	base $339	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
128 Taos Trl Ruidoso, NM	3.0	1.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	45d	1	0.60mi
107 Niblic Ct Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,200	$1.61	45d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $959
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$230
• After-tax cash flow: $3,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ruidoso Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502310
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $44,094
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5925
• State rank: #14 of 29 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruidoso, NM
• County: Lincoln County · 7,835 people
• City population: 7,835
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• Population (ZIP): 7,835
• Household income: $53,971
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.17%
• Current HPI: 141.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $225,000 RLCAR

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $183 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.