Cambridge II Plan · Herculaneum, MO 63048

$31,610

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily · 357 Days on market

$400/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to KAB Homes! Lots of quality standard features and many options to choose from. Price shown is base price. Photo is similar home and may show optional features.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 357 days

🏗️ New construction. The $31,610 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $395,183.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.9% in Herculaneum — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#542 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Festus R-VI (suburban): math 55% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #16 of 324 in MO (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 357 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 18.8% of price.

Recommended offer $27,816 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 357 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.12%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,183
• List price: $31,610
• Delta: -92.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2416 French Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,498 (0%)	4mo	$371,546	$248	92
2420 French Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+10%)	4mo	$366,971	$223	76
2441 French Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+10%)	4mo	$425,236	$259	75
1069 Providence Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-1%)	3mo	$317,900	$215	70
1316 Wesford Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+6%)	3mo	$334,900	$212	67
1329 Farnman Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-9%)	5mo	$299,000	$219	66
1030 Providence Way	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,597 (+7%)	1mo	$299,900	$188	65
1519 Burrwyck Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+4%)	2mo	$320,000	$205	64
100 Regency Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	3mo	$389,999	$245	63
1208 Laclede Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+10%)	4mo	$396,510	$241	50
1213 Oakholt Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,298 (-13%)	2mo	$279,900	$216	42
1178 Liberty Xing	0.72mi	3/3.5	1,677 (+12%)	0mo	$300,000	$179	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-152,530
• Equity at exit: $58,923

10-year hold

• IRR: -81.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.22×
• Total profit: $-245,995
• Equity at exit: $34,168

Cash invested: $110,651 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63048

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,072
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,928/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-1,394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,963

Max offer price $193,496

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,796
• Closing costs: $11,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Doctrine Dr Festus, MO	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,199	$1.63	21d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,610 Active 357 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,610 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,610 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,610 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $31,610 Active 352 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $31,610 Active 351 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $31,610 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $31,610 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $31,610 Active 346 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $31,610 Active 345 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,610 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,610 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,610 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,610 Active 339 DOM
15. 2025-06-26
    listed $310,610 Active 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    Welcome to KAB Homes! Lots of quality standard features and many options to choose from. Price shown is base price. Photo is similar home and may show optional features.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,136
• − Property taxes: −$5,928
• − Insurance: −$1,976
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$11,496
• Taxable loss: −$24,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,801
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Festus R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2912030
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,632
• Composite: 50.79/100
• National rank: #1808
• State rank: #16 of 324 in MO

Livability — Herculaneum

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #542
• US rank: #20094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herculaneum, MO
• City population: 4,143
• Population (ZIP): 4,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.70%
• Current HPI: 240.2239
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-26 Listed $310,610 Zillow