Carol Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$392,400

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,507 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

The Carol from D. R. Horton's Tradition Series delivers comfort, functionality, and long-term value in desirable new home communities across North Florida. The Carol is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area.

Key facts

• Gathering room
• Private bedroom
• Dual vanities

Tags

• GATHERING ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIVATE BEDROOM
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• DUAL VANITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $392,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $395,383.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $392k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-791 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (37.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,714 (37.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.58%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,383
• List price: $392,400
• Delta: -0.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14439 Firebird Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,488 (-1%)	2mo	$395,500	$159	67
14469 Firebird Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,488 (-1%)	0mo	$420,000	$169	65
14418 Creekbluff Way	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,719 (+8%)	1mo	$419,500	$154	58
14394 Creekbluff Way	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,286 (-9%)	3mo	$360,000	$157	56
14349 Firebird Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,286 (-9%)	2mo	$350,000	$153	56
14307 Firebird Dr	0.51mi	5/4.0	2,728 (+9%)	2mo	$389,990	$143	56
14270 Firebird Dr	0.55mi	5/4.0	2,728 (+9%)	1mo	$383,765	$141	55
14451 Firebird Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,719 (+8%)	0mo	$428,000	$157	54
14432 Firebird Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,246 (-10%)	6mo	$365,000	$163	48
14444 Firebird Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,246 (-10%)	6mo	$359,990	$160	48
14487 Firebird Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,246 (-10%)	2mo	$368,400	$164	46
14426 Firebird Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,188 (-13%)	5mo	$355,000	$162	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-53,483
• Equity at exit: $123,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-49,720
• Equity at exit: $156,169

Cash invested: $110,707 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $368,990 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 537 d
• This list price: 71% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,073
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,931/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,459

Max offer price $280,886

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-518	-5% $-655	+0% $-791	+5% $-928	+10% $-1,065
Rent	-10% $-985	-5% $-888	+0% $-791	+5% $-694	+10% $-597
Rate	-1.0pp $-592	-0.5pp $-691	base $-791	+0.5pp $-894	+1.0pp $-998

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,846
• Closing costs: $11,862
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	53d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5445 Racehorse Blvd, Jacksonville FL 32234
• Financial info: List price $389,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction home (Plan: Carol)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,507

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Carol (new construction plan)

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $392,400 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $392,400 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $392,400 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $392,400 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $392,400 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $392,400 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $392,400 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $392,400 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $392,400 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $392,400 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $392,400 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $392,400 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $392,400 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $392,400 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $392,400 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $392,400 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $392,400 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $392,400 Active 90 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $392,400 Active 89 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $392,400 Active 88 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $392,400 Active 87 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $392,400 Active 86 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $392,400 Active 85 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $392,400 Active 84 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $392,400 Active 82 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $392,400 Active 81 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $392,400 Active 80 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $392,400 Active 78 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $392,400 Active 77 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $392,400 Active 76 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $392,400 Active 75 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $392,400 Active 74 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $392,400 Active 73 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $392,400 Active 72 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $392,400 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-06-21
    days on market $392,400 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $392,400 Active 63 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $392,400 Active 62 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $392,400 Active 61 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $392,400 Active 60 DOM
41. 2026-06-10
    days on market $392,400 Active 54 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $392,400 Active 53 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $392,400 Active 48 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $392,400 Active 47 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 46 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,148
• − Property taxes: −$5,931
• − Insurance: −$1,977
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,359
• − Management: −$2,359
• − Depreciation: −$11,502
• Taxable loss: −$16,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Carol Plan home from D.R. Horton's Tradition Series is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-designed layout, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. The home's curb appeal and interior condition make it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance and upgrade — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 High Baldwin Middle-Senior High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,013,010 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 33% of renters

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Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5445 Racehorse Blvd, Jacksonville FL 32234
• Financial info: List price $389,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction home (Plan: Carol)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,507

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Carol (new construction plan)