4414 Dryden Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$9,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1954 4,930 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special, tons of potential to turn this into your home or an investment property. Property has $54,000 mechanics lien that will become buyers responsibility at closing.

Key facts

• 4,930 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 39 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $751 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 103.1% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hickey Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 273 students, 99% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $9,699 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 11.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 103.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 345.59%
• DSCR: 16.38
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4627 Korte Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+5%)	2mo	$18,100	$17	87
4610 Penrose St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,053 (+3%)	3mo	$80,000	$76	78
4556 Carter Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-9%)	3mo	$67,500	$72	74
4246 N Taylor Ave	0.14mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,101 (+7%)	3mo	$60,000	$54	71
4848 Calvin Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (-2%)	4mo	$65,000	$65	66
4547 Bessie Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	906 (-12%)	4mo	$39,500	$44	64
4607 Lee Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	912 (-11%)	4mo	$25,000	$27	62
4729 Margaretta Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	982 (-4%)	2mo	$9,900	$10	59
4853 Lee Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+6%)	3mo	$29,900	$27	56
4234 Shreve Ave	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	890 (-13%)	2mo	$39,999	$45	54
4843 Lee Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+14%)	2mo	$71,500	$61	50
4533 Lexington Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+15%)	3mo	$105,900	$90	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.52×
• Total profit: $46,246
• Equity at exit: $1,491

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.45×
• Total profit: $102,047
• Equity at exit: $865

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $150/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $158

Max offer price $9,999

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	0.19mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	16d	1	0.29mi
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.42mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	2d	1	0.44mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	44d	1	0.48mi
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	0.53mi
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	44d	1	0.54mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	44d	1	0.58mi
5338 Claxton Ave Unit 33 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,550	$1.30	44d	1	1.06mi
4627 Maffitt Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$795	$1.13	44d	1	1.19mi
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	44d	1	1.43mi
2002 Obear Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	4d	1	1.48mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $9,999 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $9,999 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $9,999 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $9,999 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $9,999 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $9,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $9,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 177-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $9,999 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $9,999 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $9,999 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $9,999 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $9,999 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 169-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    pricestatusdays on market $9,999 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-07
    price $26,900
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $29,900 Active
19. 1996-07-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$150
• − Insurance: −$716
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $9,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $6,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $26,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $503 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.