4431 Coosada Rd · Millbrook, AL 36054

$155,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 253 Days on market

Built 1950 0.60 ac lot $84/sqft · 23% below area Est $202k · 23% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this great 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a generously sized lot, offering both space and comfort! This property boasts excellent convenience, being close to all the amenities you could desire. With its excellent bones and great potential for customization, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for creating your dream living space. Rest assured, key systems are well-maintained, including an HVAC system that is approximately 3 years old and a roof that is approximately 5 years old, providing peace of mind and long-term value. Don't let this slip away.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.71%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,057
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -23.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4010 Rose Hill Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,839 (-0%)	2mo	$192,000	$104	74
4351 Forest Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-12%)	6mo	$109,600	$67	58
163 Magnolia Loop	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+1%)	8mo	$258,000	$139	55
4080 Rose Hill Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+3%)	24mo	$183,000	$96	52
214 Bishop Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,566 (-15%)	11mo	$210,000	$134	41
90 Ginfield Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-7%)	24mo	$230,000	$134	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,995
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $85,947
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36054

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $882/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3321 Branch St Millbrook, AL	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	21d	1	0.91mi
63 Lilly Pad Cir Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	14d	1	1.11mi
223 S Springfield Dr Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,950	$1.11	44d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 235 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 234 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    status Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to this great 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a generously sized lot, offering both space and comfort! This property boasts excellent convenience, being close to all the amenities you could desire. With its excellent bones and great potential for customization, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for creating your dream living space. Rest assured, key systems are well-maintained, including an HVAC system that is approximately 3 years old and a roof that is approximately 5 years old, providing peace of mind and long-term value. Don't let this slip away.

18. 2026-03-19
    price $155,000 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to this great 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a generously sized lot, offering both space and comfort! This property boasts excellent convenience, being close to all the amenities you could desire. With its excellent bones and great potential for customization, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for creating your dream living space. Rest assured, key systems are well-maintained, including an HVAC system that is approximately 3 years old and a roof that is approximately 5 years old, providing peace of mind and long-term value. Don't let this slip away.

19. 2026-02-26
    historical Contingent 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to this great 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a generously sized lot, offering both space and comfort! This property boasts excellent convenience, being close to all the amenities you could desire. With its excellent bones and great potential for customization, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for creating your dream living space. Rest assured, key systems are well-maintained, including an HVAC system that is approximately 3 years old and a roof that is approximately 5 years old, providing peace of mind and long-term value. Don't let this slip away.

20. 2025-10-07
    listed $169,900 Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Welcome to this great 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a generously sized lot, offering both space and comfort! This property boasts excellent convenience, being close to all the amenities you could desire. With its excellent bones and great potential for customization, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for creating your dream living space. Rest assured, key systems are well-maintained, including an HVAC system that is approximately 3 years old and a roof that is approximately 5 years old, providing peace of mind and long-term value. Don't let this slip away.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $882 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$882
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $2,687
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$645
• After-tax cash flow: $4,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• City population: 14,600
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,600
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — MAAR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $155,000 MAAR
• 2026-02-26 Contingent — MAAR
• 2025-10-07 Listed $169,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $882 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.