8316 Dawn Pl · Weldon, CA 93240

$104,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1975 6,970 sqft lot $73/sqft · 27% below area Est $143k · 27% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in South Lake up the Hill on Goat Ranch Rd minutes from the Lake and Town conveniences. .. .Large-corner lot fenced with gated access on Dawn Pl. with a covered carport and access on Star Bright Dr. gated for boat, RV and all the toys. A (2) bedroom open floorplan with formal dining area and large living room with wood-burning Franklin-like stove. .. .warm rich-colored vinyl flooring T/O. .. .custom window treatment and blinds on windows. .. .Open floorplan. .. .Kitchen in the round with table top for (2) open to family room area. .. .Large master bedroom with mirrored closet door. .. .2nd bedroom with access to bathroom. .. .indoor laundry area. .. .a wonderful deck-covered with view of valley and mountain vistas, sunrises in the am. .. .Seller states furniture pieces can be included on sale. .. .

Key facts

• Indoor laundry area
• Gated access
• Large corner lot

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• GATED ACCESS
• COVERED CARPORT
• ACCESS FOR BOAT RV
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• DECK WITH VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.70%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,053
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -26.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8305 Wildmint Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	13mo	$195,000	$139	80
3712 Goat Ranch Rd	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	23mo	$178,500	$133	58
8601 Deerbrush Ave	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$125,000	$100	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $72,218
• Equity at exit: $62,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $178,158
• Equity at exit: $111,751

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    price $104,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,900 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,900 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-04-29
    price $108,900 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Located in South Lake up the Hill on Goat Ranch Rd minutes from the Lake and Town conveniences. .. .Large-corner lot fenced with gated access on Dawn Pl. with a covered carport and access on Star Bright Dr. gated for boat, RV and all the toys. A (2) bedroom open floorplan with formal dining area and large living room with wood-burning Franklin-like stove. .. .warm rich-colored vinyl flooring T/O. .. .custom window treatment and blinds on windows. .. .Open floorplan. .. .Kitchen in the round with table top for (2) open to family room area. .. .Large master bedroom with mirrored closet door. .. .2nd bedroom with access to bathroom. .. .indoor laundry area. .. .a wonderful deck-covered with view of valley and mountain vistas, sunrises in the am. .. .Seller states furniture pieces can be included on sale. .. .

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $119,900 Active 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Located in South Lake up the Hill on Goat Ranch Rd minutes from the Lake and Town conveniences. .. .Large-corner lot fenced with gated access on Dawn Pl. with a covered carport and access on Star Bright Dr. gated for boat, RV and all the toys. A (2) bedroom open floorplan with formal dining area and large living room with wood-burning Franklin-like stove. .. .warm rich-colored vinyl flooring T/O. .. .custom window treatment and blinds on windows. .. .Open floorplan. .. .Kitchen in the round with table top for (2) open to family room area. .. .Large master bedroom with mirrored closet door. .. .2nd bedroom with access to bathroom. .. .indoor laundry area. .. .a wonderful deck-covered with view of valley and mountain vistas, sunrises in the am. .. .Seller states furniture pieces can be included on sale. .. .

21. 2025-06-20
    status Active
22. 2025-06-19
    status Pending
23. 2025-02-13
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $7,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $6,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weldon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $108,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $119,900 CRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2025-06-19 Pending — SSMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $130,000 SSMLS

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.