2010 Nowlin Rd · Coleman, TX 76834

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

9,322 sqft lot $46/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is being sold AS IS, has good bones and needs to be RENOVATED. The roof was put on in 2022 as well as meter loop and cut off box installed. Kitchen cabinets are available. There is a fireplace in the living room. Large back yard with chain link fence. This will make a great family home or a great investment property for a rental. On a large lot, fenced in back yard right off Santa Anna Ave. Contractors input around $35 to make this home move in ready! NO OWNER FINANCING!! ALL OFFERS NEED TO BE MADE BY EMAIL. NO OFFERS ACCEPTED BY TEXTING. TEXTING FOR APPOINTMENT ONLY.

Key facts

• Meter loop installed
• Large back yard
• Roof put on in 2022

Tags

• ROOF PUT ON IN 2022
• METER LOOP INSTALLED
• CUT OFF BOX INSTALLED
• FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM
• LARGE BACK YARD
• CHAIN LINK FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($834 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 4.5% in Coleman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#454 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Coleman ISD (town): math 42% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #439 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Coleman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Coleman County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.92%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,604
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -54.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 E 10th St	0.28mi	2/1.0	912 (+6%)	20mo	$62,500	$69	61
1004 San Saba St	0.66mi	2/1.0	900 (+4%)	6mo	$55,000	$61	57
1215 Llano	0.52mi	2/2.0	976 (+13%)	5mo	$149,000	$153	46
801 E 5th St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+14%)	7mo	$87,000	$88	37
408 E 4th St	0.61mi	2/1.0	752 (-13%)	21mo	$49,900	$66	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $29,789
• Equity at exit: $24,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $73,120
• Equity at exit: $43,337

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76834

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,615/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $457

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $309	+0% $298	+5% $287	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $232	-5% $265	+0% $298	+5% $331	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $308	base $298	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-02-13
    listed $40,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    This home is being sold AS IS, has good bones and needs to be RENOVATED. The roof was put on in 2022 as well as meter loop and cut off box installed. Kitchen cabinets are available. There is a fireplace in the living room. Large back yard with chain link fence. This will make a great family home or a great investment property for a rental. On a large lot, fenced in back yard right off Santa Anna Ave. Contractors input around $35 to make this home move in ready! NO OWNER FINANCING!! ALL OFFERS NEED TO BE MADE BY EMAIL. NO OFFERS ACCEPTED BY TEXTING. TEXTING FOR APPOINTMENT ONLY.

18. 2026-02-04
    historical
19. 2025-08-11
    status Active
20. 2025-08-04
    listed $40,000 Active
21. 2025-07-16
    historical
22. 2024-11-23
    price $40,000
23. 2024-11-08
    status Active
24. 2024-10-31
    status Pending
25. 2024-04-04
    status Active
26. 2024-03-25
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2023-11-20
    listed $49,900 Active
28. 2021-06-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,615 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,615 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,615
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$801
• − Management: −$801
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $3,189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$765
• After-tax cash flow: $2,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coleman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,765
• Composite: 33.18/100
• National rank: #5540
• State rank: #439 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coleman

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #9173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coleman, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,861

Population outlook (Coleman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,321 people
• By 2030: 6,834 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 5,968 · -18.5%
• By 2050: 5,283 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 4,205 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 3,405 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Slovak 8% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Coleman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.0) · D 10.3% · R 89.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -64.0pp · 2024: -79.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.0 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+76.8 2012: R+73.7 2008: R+64.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 123.8456
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-08 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-10-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-03-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-11-20 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2021-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,615 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.