4730 Pembrooke Ln · Bonita Springs, FL 34134

$489,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1989 0.31 ac lot Est $579k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, location! This charming two-story home in Spring Creek Estates is a great opportunity with no HOA fees and a private fenced backyard featuring a pool and peaceful lake view. Located west of US-41, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a highly desirable area. Original Owner and this home has been very well cared for. Perfect for a family with plenty of space to spread out as well as entertain. This property includes many recent updates, including a new roof in 2023, newer kitchen appliances, and a new washer and dryer also installed in 2023. The upstairs A/C unit was replaced in 2024, along with a new electrical panel and updated exterior vinyl siding ( * Energy-efficie

Key facts

• New washer and dryer
• New roof
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• POOL AND PEACEFUL LAKE VIEW
• NEW ROOF
• NEWER KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER
• UPSTAIRS A/C UNIT REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Development: ESTERO BAY SHORES; Lot described as regular on a private road; Lot dimensions/source recorded with property appraiser
• HOA & community: No HOA maintenance or amenities; Community type: Boating

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway (2+ spaces)
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; Two-story; Rear exposure: North
• Construction: Concrete block and wood frame construction; Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 1989; Single hung windows
• Exterior features: Built-in wood fire pit; Deck; Patio; Below-ground concrete private pool; Lake view/waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: French doors; Smoke detectors; Vaulted/volume ceilings; Window coverings; Great room floor plan; Dining area in living space; Balcony; Family room; Florida room; Guest room; Guest bath; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-336/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $485k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $421k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $421k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($460k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $490k implies a 1025% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $421,243 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $579,255
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4694 Pembrooke Ln	0.08mi	3/3.0	1,426 (-10%)	8mo	$520,000	$365	69
4713 Fiji Ln	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,560 (-2%)	14mo	$121,000	$78	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-81,692
• Equity at exit: $72,986

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-75,840
• Equity at exit: $42,323

Cash invested: $137,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34134

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,567
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,900/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$885
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,248

Max offer price $484,551

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,375
• Closing costs: $14,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4700 Leilani Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$5,000	$3.62	23d	1	0.20mi
4715 Swordfish St Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1940	$7,795	$4.02	23d	1	0.21mi
4715 Swordfish St Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1940	$4,395	$2.27	11d	1	0.21mi
4709 Kon Tiki Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	23d	1	0.36mi
23850 Via Italia Cir #204 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2086	$11,000	$5.27	3d	1	0.46mi
23850 Via Italia Cir #204 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2086	$7,000	$3.36	23d	1	0.46mi
23850 Via Italia Cir #404 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2085	$11,000	$5.28	23d	1	0.46mi
24420 Reserve Ct #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2244	$8,000	$3.57	23d	1	0.55mi
4161 Sawgrass Point Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$5,500	$3.81	21d	1	0.58mi
4161 Sawgrass Point Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.58mi
4201 Sawgrass Point Dr #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1319	$5,000	$3.79	23d	1	0.60mi
23650 Via Veneto Blvd #1602 Estero, FL	2.0	2.5	1818	$8,000	$4.40	23d	1	0.60mi
4200 Sawgrass Point Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$5,250	$3.63	23d	1	0.64mi
24300 Sandpiper Isle Way #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1887	$7,500	$3.97	23d	1	0.66mi
24361 Sandpiper Isle Way #401 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1807	$8,000	$4.43	23d	1	0.75mi
25151 Bay Cedar Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1738	$11,000	$6.33	1d	1	0.76mi
24360 Sandpiper Isle Way #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1666	$6,500	$3.90	23d	1	0.78mi
23540 Via Veneto Blvd #804 Estero, FL	2.0	2.5	1910	$11,000	$5.76	23d	1	0.78mi
23540 Via Veneto Blvd #1702 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1910	$12,500	$6.54	23d	1	0.78mi
25130 Sandpiper Greens Ct #104 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1392	$6,500	$4.67	23d	1	1.00mi
24827 Lakemont Cove Ln #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$6,750	$4.35	23d	1	1.14mi
23272 E Eldorado Ave Unit 1073519P Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$8,737	$4.89	21d	1	1.14mi
24821 Lakemont Cove Ln #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$7,000	$4.29	23d	1	1.17mi
24821 Lakemont Cove Ln #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$5,000	$3.02	21d	1	1.17mi
24821 Lakemont Cove Ln #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$6,500	$5.40	23d	1	1.17mi
3578 Heron Cove Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2185	$9,000	$4.12	23d	1	1.19mi
3441 Morning Lake Dr #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2045	$6,000	$2.93	10d	1	1.21mi
4649 Santiago Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,600	$1.60	13d	1	1.23mi
4649 Santiago Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,600	$1.60	23d	1	1.23mi
4665 Key Largo Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1880	$12,000	$6.38	23d	1	1.35mi
23680 Walden Center Dr #107 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,900	$1.81	3d	1	1.36mi
23640 Walden Center Dr #106 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,850	$1.76	1d	1	1.38mi
4600 Key Largo Ln Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$5,250	$2.62	3d	1	1.39mi
4600 Key Largo Ln Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$5,250	$2.62	23d	1	1.39mi
23710 Walden Center Dr #308 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$3,000	$2.21	23d	1	1.40mi
3451 Ballybridge Cir #103 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$6,500	$3.82	23d	1	1.42mi
23520 Walden Center Dr #308 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,000	$1.61	23d	1	1.43mi
23520 Walden Center Dr #308 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,000	$1.61	3d	1	1.43mi
23500 Walden Center Dr Estero, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,800	$3.48	15d	3	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,500 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,500 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,500 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,500 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $489,500 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,500 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $489,500 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $489,500 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $489,500 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,500 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-03-29
    listed $489,500 Active
13. 2013-10-31
    historical
14. 2012-11-02
    listed $285,000
15. 1996-11-08
    soldstatus $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,900 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,063 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,163/yr (+$180/mo · 113.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,420
• − Property taxes: −$1,900
• − Insurance: −$7,566
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,044
• − Management: −$4,044
• − Depreciation: −$14,240
• Taxable loss: −$8,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,079
• After-tax cash flow: $1,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,475
• Household income: $130,719
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.48%
• Current HPI: 237.4416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1025.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $489,500 BEARMLS
• 2013-10-31 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2012-11-02 Listed $285,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1996-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,900 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.