814 Fern Leaf Dr · Ruskin, FL 33570

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2010 6,534 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Virtually Staged. Best value in Bahia Lakes—priced to move and full of potential. Seller is motivated—bring all offers. Welcome to 814 Fern Leaf Drive, a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Bahia Lakes community. Whether you’re looking for a place to call home or a smart long-term hold in a growing area, this property checks the boxes. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout with a functional flow, laminate wood flooring throughout the main living areas, and tile in the kitchen, dining space, and bathrooms. The spacious primary suite features a private en-suite bath, creating a comfortable retreat

Key facts

• Community pool
• Turnkey investment
• Pond views

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• TURNKEY INVESTMENT
• POND VIEWS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Elementary (math 42% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 744 students, 69% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 489 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-49,081
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-70,537
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33570

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,213/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $202,126

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 6th Ave NW Ruskin, FL	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,795	$1.11	2d	1	0.28mi
578 Olive Conch St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	22d	1	0.43mi
986 7th Ave NW Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,476	$1.63	3d	1	0.43mi
649 Sunlit Coral St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,995	$1.32	5d	1	0.64mi
320 Blue Point Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,145	$1.21	3d	1	0.67mi
511 Sunlit Coral St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,995	$1.33	24d	1	0.68mi
590 Sunlit Coral St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,200	$1.45	24d	1	0.69mi
1610 Bonita Bluff Ct Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,175	$1.50	24d	1	0.86mi
724 Royal Empress Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1796	$2,195	$1.22	3d	1	0.87mi
424 Newmont Cir Ruskin, FL	3.0	3.0	1707	$1,950	$1.14	24d	1	0.93mi
720 Chatham Walk Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,985	$1.41	5d	1	1.01mi
837 Chatham Walk Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,350	$1.67	24d	1	1.29mi
1113 Brenton Leaf Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,985	$1.44	20d	1	1.29mi
1740 Chatham Green Cir Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	3d	1	1.33mi
1029 Spotted Egret Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,150	$1.47	5d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   status Active
3. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-03
   price $225,000
5. 2026-01-07
   price $255,000
6. 2025-09-19
   listed $275,000 Active
7. 2025-07-14
   historical
8. 2025-03-20
   price $299,900
9. 2025-03-06
   price $305,000
10. 2025-02-04
    price $315,000
11. 2024-12-29
    listed $324,900 Active
12. 2024-11-24
    historical $2,050
13. 2024-10-22
    listed $2,050
14. 2024-10-22
    historical $2,050
15. 2024-09-24
    listed $2,050
16. 2024-08-23
    price $315,000
17. 2024-07-12
    listed $325,000 Active
18. 2024-07-11
    historical $2,000
19. 2024-07-11
    historical
20. 2024-07-06
    status Active
21. 2024-07-06
    listed $2,000
22. 2024-07-05
    historical
23. 2024-06-14
    historical $2,000
24. 2024-06-14
    price $310,000
25. 2024-05-31
    listed $2,000
26. 2024-05-09
    listed $322,500 Active
27. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus $307,000
28. 2022-03-25
    soldstatus $307,000 Closed
29. 2022-02-22
    status Pending
30. 2022-02-17
    status Active
31. 2022-02-09
    status Pending
32. 2022-02-07
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,213 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,213 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$6,213
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruskin, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,319
• Household income: $72,172
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.10%
• Current HPI: 277.8257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-29 Listed $324,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-24 Rental Removed $2,050 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-22 Listed for Rent $2,050 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-22 Rental Removed $2,050 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-24 Listed for Rent $2,050 STELLARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Rental Removed $2,000 STELLARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-06 Listed for Rent $2,000 STELLARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-14 Rental Removed $2,000 STELLARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-31 Listed for Rent $2,000 STELLARMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $322,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $307,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-25 Sold (MLS) $307,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-07 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,213 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.