23087 Lone Oak Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · Condo public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1999 $808/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at the end on the Cul-de-Sac, this 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom end-unit boasts over 1,500 square feet and an extra large screened-in lanai with a one car attached garage. Enter from main private entrance or through your attached garage to the first floor entrance foyer and continue up the stairs to an open floor plan with North/East exposure overlooking the tree lined preserve. 11 foot tall ceilings in the great room, with 2 large glass sliders opening up to your big lanai. With a split bedroom floor plan, the master suite is completely separate from the two other guest bedrooms. Laundry In-Unit, vaulted ceiling 2nd bedroom in front and a 3rd bedroom with double doors off of the great roo

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• North/east exposure
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• UPSTAIRS 3 BEDROOM CONDO
• CUL-DE-SAC
• EXTRA LARGE SCREENED-IN LANAI
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NORTH/EAST EXPOSURE
• TREE LINED PRESERVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No motorcycles, no RVs, and no rentals allowed
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with professional management; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, trash removal, and water; Community amenities include basketball, community pool, community room, spa/hot tub, exercise room, internet access, pickleball, and tennis courts; Quarterly master HOA fee; Quarterly HOA fee; Total annual recurring fees $9,692; Total one-time fees $1,175

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Paved driveway; Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Water assessment paid; Sewer assessment paid; Cable available; Irrigation assessment paid
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1-3) building; 2-story building; Rear exposure faces northeast; Part of Marsh Landing development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 1999
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Single-hung windows; Manual shutters; Stucco exterior; Cul-de-sac lot; Preserve view

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Foyer; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Volume ceiling; Window coverings; Den / study; Great room; Screened lanai/porch; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (15.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $240k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,838 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-71,881
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-119,817
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,519/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$808
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,765

Max offer price $239,838

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-175	+0% $-256	+5% $-336	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-392	+0% $-256	+5% $-120	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-183	base $-256	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23036 Lone Oak Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$4,500	$2.95	25d	1	0.05mi
23007 Lone Oak Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$3,950	$2.59	25d	1	0.07mi
23176 Grassy Pine Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1954	$5,000	$2.56	25d	1	0.23mi
21715 Bridgegate Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,750	$1.95	25d	1	0.37mi
23161 Fashion Dr #7109 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$4,000	$2.77	25d	1	0.43mi
23159 Amgci Way Estero, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1164	$4,500	$3.87	23d	2	0.46mi
8011 Via Monte Carlo Way #2213 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,450	$2.00	13d	1	0.46mi
8011 Via Monte Carlo Way #2209 Estero, FL	2.0	2.5	1857	$2,800	$1.51	20d	1	0.46mi
23159 Amgci Way #3314 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,400	$1.96	25d	1	0.46mi
8010 Via Sardinia Way Estero, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1202	$2,300	$1.91	25d	2	0.47mi
8010 Via Sardinia St #202 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	17d	1	0.47mi
8010 Via Sardinia Way #4208 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$3,800	$2.81	25d	1	0.47mi
22201 Fountain Lakes Blvd Estero, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	25d	1	0.48mi
8001 Via Monte Carlo Way Unit 103 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$2,800	$2.07	20d	1	0.48mi
8000 Via Sardinia Way #5301 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$2,500	$1.85	5d	1	0.49mi
8000 Via Sardinia Way #5207 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$5,500	$3.99	25d	1	0.49mi
3685 Stone Way Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,500	$1.35	25d	1	0.52mi
3441 Morning Lake Dr #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2045	$6,000	$2.93	12d	1	0.55mi
23520 Walden Center Dr #308 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,000	$1.61	25d	1	0.57mi
23520 Walden Center Dr #308 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,000	$1.61	5d	1	0.57mi
8601 Piazza del Lago Cir #203 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1660	$2,600	$1.57	25d	1	0.58mi
3728 Stone Way Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$2,000	$1.57	25d	1	0.61mi
23500 Walden Center Dr Estero, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,800	$3.48	17d	3	0.61mi
8641 Piazza del Lago Cir #203 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$6,100	$3.52	17d	1	0.62mi
23640 Walden Center Dr #106 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,850	$1.76	3d	1	0.62mi
8524 Via Lungomare Cir #201 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1612	$3,250	$2.02	16d	1	0.66mi
23710 Walden Center Dr #308 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$3,000	$2.21	25d	1	0.68mi
23680 Walden Center Dr #107 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,900	$1.81	5d	1	0.68mi
8560 Evernia Ct #204 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,100	$1.46	23d	1	0.70mi
8561 Evernia Ct #101 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,000	$1.87	25d	1	0.72mi
8560 Violeta St #101 Estero, FL	2.0	3.0	1261	$2,200	$1.74	25d	1	0.75mi
8540 Violeta St #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,495	$1.73	25d	1	0.75mi
8561 Violeta St #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,950	$2.05	25d	1	0.77mi
22631 Island Lakes Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	25d	1	0.79mi
23520 Alamanda Dr #203 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$2,200	$1.77	5d	1	0.81mi
23520 Alamanda Dr #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$5,500	$3.79	25d	1	0.81mi
3578 Heron Cove Ct Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2185	$9,000	$4.12	25d	1	0.82mi
8510 Violeta St #201 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,400	$2.08	25d	1	0.84mi
8500 Violeta St #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1468	$5,200	$3.54	3d	1	0.86mi
8600 Via Rapallo Dr #204 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1660	$6,200	$3.73	25d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $808 · $9,696/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $285,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-04-11
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$847/yr (+$71/mo · 55.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,519
• − Insurance: −$6,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,304
• − Management: −$3,304
• − HOA: −$9,696
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $299,000 BEARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,519 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.