Is 548 Rancho Del Cielo Loop in Jarrell, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.3% cap rate and $-360/mo modeled cash flow at a $215,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 548 Rancho Del Cielo Loop?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,774/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 34.28

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +11.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.5/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
1% rule +3.3/10.0
Schools +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
DSCR +0.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$215,000

548 Rancho Del Cielo Loop · Jarrell, TX 76537

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,595 sqft lot Garage $168/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · 9% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to 548 Rancho del Cielo – Peaceful Country Living with Modern Comforts! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,400 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space, surrounded by gorgeous countryside views where cows and horses roam. Enjoy the best of rural tranquility with modern upgrades and dog-friendly features. Interior Highlights: • Spacious open layout with vinyl plank flooring and carpet in bedrooms • Quartz countertops, copper single-basin kitchen sink, and oil-rubbed bronze plumbing fixtures throughout • Black GE appliances • Ceiling fans in all bedrooms for added comfort • 50-gallon water heater.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Doggie door
Black ge appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (29.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (17.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $151k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $151,359 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.83% ✗
Cap rate: 4.28%
Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
DSCR: 0.68
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $235,932
List price: $215,000
Delta: -8.87%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
254 Kings Row Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-5%)	3mo	$200,990	$166	79
261 Kings Row Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	3mo	$200,990	$148	77
444 Jones Beach Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-5%)	3mo	$188,990	$156	76
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	2mo	$220,990	$163	76
518 Mccloud Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-7%)	1mo	$169,999	$143	75
121 Texas Angel Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	3mo	$198,999	$147	75
512 Texas Angel Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,276 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$153	75
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	2mo	$217,990	$161	72
510 Jones Beach Cv	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	2mo	$212,990	$151	70
519 Jones Beach Cv	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+10%)	3mo	$208,990	$149	69
120 Cattle Queen Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	0mo	$229,990	$163	64
513 Texas Angel Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	0mo	$239,990	$170	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.9%
Equity multiple: -0.04×
Total profit: $-62,788
Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

IRR: -67.3%
Equity multiple: -0.72×
Total profit: $-103,517
Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 39 active · 29 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $209,999 ($146/sqft)
Median days on market: 52 d
This list price: 64% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +26.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

Home prices YoY: -14.4%
Rents YoY: -1.7%
Active inventory: 915
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,774 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
Tax from tax record: −$445 /mo · $5,339/yr
Insurance: −$90
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $151,359

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-239	-5% $-299	+0% $-360	+5% $-421	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-500	-5% $-430	+0% $-360	+5% $-290	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-252	-0.5pp $-306	base $-360	+0.5pp $-416	+1.0pp $-473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $53,750
Closing costs: $6,450
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	93d	1	0.01mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	52d	1	0.04mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	93d	1	0.05mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	69d	1	0.20mi
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	17d	1	0.26mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	73d	1	0.27mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	93d	1	0.30mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	93d	1	0.30mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	53d	1	0.30mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	48d	1	0.43mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	41d	1	0.43mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	64d	1	0.47mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,750	$1.44	34d	1	0.55mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association (Rancho del Cielo Residential Management)HOA fee $100 monthlyHOA covers common area maintenance and internetCommunity features include dog park, playground, pool, and sport court(s)

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 spacesGarage faces frontGarage door openerSingle garage doorDriveway (total parking for 4)
Security: Owned security systemSmoke detector(s)
Utilities: Electricity connectedPublic sewerPublic water
Home design: Single-storyFaces southResale propertyHas view
Construction: Built per public recordsHardiPlank exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Covered front porchPrivacy wood fencingBack yardBacks to greenbelt/parkLevel lotAutomatic in-ground sprinklersSmall treesCommunity pool

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowavePlumbed for ice makerRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
Interior features: Open floor planBreakfast barPantryQuartz countersRecessed lightingCeiling fan(s)No interior stepsMain level primaryWalk-in closet(s)BlindsDouble pane windows
Laundry & utility: Laundry roomWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryerElectric water heaterExhaust fan

HOA detail $100/mo · $1,200/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $215,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $215,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $215,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $215,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $215,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $215,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $215,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $215,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $215,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $215,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $215,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $215,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $215,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $215,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $215,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $215,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $215,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $215,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $215,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $215,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $215,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $215,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $215,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-30

price $215,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $220,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $220,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $220,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $220,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $220,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $5,339 · $445/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $5,339 · $445/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,292
− Mortgage interest: −$12,043
− Property taxes: −$5,339
− Insurance: −$1,075
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
− Management: −$1,703
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$6,255
Taxable loss: −$8,027

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,926
After-tax cash flow: $-2,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,380–$19,140 screening

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,400 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space with modern upgrades and dog-friendly features. The property is in good condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Jarrell ISD
NCES district ID: 4824600
Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $57,132
Composite: 21.47/100
National rank: #8335
State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

Score: 71/100
State rank: #313
US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
City population: 16,272
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 16,272
Household income: $98,199
Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 699,027 people
By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
Current HPI: 184.8935
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+12879.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-05-08 Listed $220,000 Unlock MLS
2025-08-27 Rental Removed $1,695 ACTRIS
2025-08-16 Listed for Rent $1,695 ACTRIS

Property tax history

+94.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,339 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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