1732 13th Ave · Rockford, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +12.9/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +4.9/5.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.2/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$90,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
4 Bedroom 2 Story Home. 16x11 Bonus Room could be used as extra Bedroom. Partially Fenced Yard.
Key facts
- 6,969 sq ft lot
- Built 1900
- Listed 175 days
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
- Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
- Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $1,474/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 1406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $67k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.64% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.02%
- Cash-on-cash
- 24.03%
- DSCR
- 2.07
- GRM
- 5.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $102,369
- List price
- $90,000
- Delta
- -12.08%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1519 13th St | 0.15mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,550 (-0%) | 2mo | $166,000 | $107 | 82 |
| 1615 15th Ave | 0.23mi | 3/1.0 | 1,451 (-6%) | 1mo | $149,000 | $103 | 78 |
| 1123 16th St | 0.25mi | 3/1.0 | 1,758 (+13%) | 0mo | $125,000 | $71 | 66 |
| 2229 Broadway St | 0.44mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,492 (-4%) | 0mo | $169,500 | $114 | 64 |
| 2317 11th Ave | 0.52mi | 4/1.0 (+1) | 1,612 (+4%) | 1mo | $166,000 | $103 | 64 |
| 1130 16th St | 0.27mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,734 (+12%) | 1mo | $111,500 | $64 | 58 |
| 1610 Parmele St | 0.32mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,776 (+14%) | 3mo | $78,500 | $44 | 54 |
| 2205 18th Ave | 0.54mi | 3/1.0 | 1,355 (-13%) | 0mo | $107,000 | $79 | 54 |
| 2342 17th Ave | 0.61mi | 3/1.0 | 1,726 (+11%) | 1mo | $167,000 | $97 | 52 |
| 2126 9th St | 0.74mi | 3/2.5 | 1,435 (-8%) | 2mo | $163,000 | $114 | 46 |
| 1318 6th Ave | 0.62mi | 3/1.5 | 1,365 (-12%) | 5mo | $125,000 | $92 | 45 |
| 620 17th St | 0.59mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,336 (-14%) | 2mo | $199,000 | $149 | 38 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 23.0%
- Equity multiple
- 2.01×
- Total profit
- $25,394
- Equity at exit
- $13,419
- IRR
- 34.1%
- Equity multiple
- 4.93×
- Total profit
- $99,138
- Equity at exit
- $7,782
Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 61104
- Home prices YoY
- -21.4%
- Rents YoY
- 9.7%
- Active inventory
- 67
- Price-to-rent
- 5.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,474 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$472
- Tax from tax record
- −$150 /mo · $1,802/yr
- Insurance
- −$38
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$310
- Net cashflow
- $505
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $22,500
- Closing costs
- $2,700
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 11 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1004 15th St Rockford, IL | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1267 | $1,450 | $1.14 | 21d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 1202 18th St Unit 3 Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $1,700 | $1.13 | 13d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 1519 17th Ave Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $1,600 | $1.07 | 13d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 1231 11th Ave Rockford, IL | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1284 | $1,450 | $1.13 | 43d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 1119 9th Ave Unit 1W Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1155 | $1,600 | $1.39 | 43d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 333 S Gardiner Ave Unit AVE2 Rockford, IL | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1306 | $1,600 | $1.23 | 43d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 2021 2nd Ave Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1250 | $1,000 | $0.80 | 13d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 914 18th Ave Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1123 | $900 | $0.80 | 43d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 2217 8th St Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1260 | $1,500 | $1.19 | 43d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 314 N Longwood St Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1060 | $1,100 | $1.04 | 43d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 708 29th St Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1800 | $1,600 | $0.89 | 21d | 1 | 1.29mi |
Listing history 11 events
-
2026-05-04status Pending 95-char remark
Show marketing remark (95 chars)
4 Bedroom 2 Story Home. 16x11 Bonus Room could be used as extra Bedroom. Partially Fenced Yard.
-
2026-05-04status Pending 95-char remark
Show marketing remark (95 chars)
4 Bedroom 2 Story Home. 16x11 Bonus Room could be used as extra Bedroom. Partially Fenced Yard.
-
2025-11-10$90,000 Active 95-char remark
Show marketing remark (95 chars)
4 Bedroom 2 Story Home. 16x11 Bonus Room could be used as extra Bedroom. Partially Fenced Yard.
-
2025-11-10$90,000 Active 95-char remark
Show marketing remark (95 chars)
4 Bedroom 2 Story Home. 16x11 Bonus Room could be used as extra Bedroom. Partially Fenced Yard.
-
2007-05-03soldstatus $67,000
-
2007-04-02historical
-
2007-03-27historical
-
2007-03-14
-
2006-12-12
-
1994-08-05soldstatus $25,000
-
1994-08-05soldstatus $25,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,802 · $150/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,923 · $160/mo
- Expected delta
- +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 6.7%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,686
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,041
- − Property taxes
- −$1,802
- − Insurance
- −$450
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,415
- − Management
- −$1,415
- − Depreciation
- −$2,618
- Taxable income
- $4,945
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,187
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,870/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Rockford SD 205
- NCES district ID
- 1734510
- Math proficiency
- 12% ▼ -2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 16% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,533
- Composite
- 12.21/100
- National rank
- #9649
- State rank
- #533 of 620 in IL
Livability — Rockford
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #876
- US rank
- #17035
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Rockford, IL
- County
- Winnebago County · 147,297 people
- City population
- 147,297
- Metro
- Rockford, IL
- Population (ZIP)
- 17,222
- Household income
- $33,772
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1406.0
Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 271,080 people
- By 2030
- 260,684 · -3.8%
- By 2040
- 238,405 · -12.1%
- By 2050
- 216,129 · -20.3%
- By 2075
- 172,882 · -36.2%
- By 2100
- 135,336 · -50.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 41% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 16% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
- Languages at home
- 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -63.40%
- Current HPI
- 233.0219
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 9.67%
- Metro
- Rockford, IL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
||
| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
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Price history
+260.0% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-04 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-04 Pending — NWIAR
- 2025-11-10 Listed $90,000 NWIAR
- 2025-11-10 Listed $90,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2007-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
- 2007-04-02 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2007-03-27 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2007-03-14 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2006-12-12 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 1994-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
- 1994-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-0.9%/yrLatest (2024): $1,802 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…