1440 S Orange Ave Spc 27 · El Cajon, CA 92020

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 237 Days on market

Built 1972 16 ac lot Est $143k · 9% over ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable 55+ community of Villa Novia, (YOU CAN HAVE 18 YEAR OLD AND UP IN THIS COMPLEX WITH A 55) this 1440 sq ft home offers comfort, convenience, and a vibrant lifestyle at the base of scenic Mt. Helix. NO SD COUNTY PROPERTY TAXES!! Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this spacious residence has some recent upgrades include new flooring, exterior paint with Coolwalls by Texaco, freshly painted interior and exterior California room walls, a newer AC and heating system, new washer and dryer, new water heater, and new microwave. Enjoy refreshed spaces with new blinds in the living room, master bedroom, and California room, plus refurbished dual sinks in the master bath, ch

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• Double-wide home
• New flooring

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW AC AND HEATING SYSTEM
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: EL CAJON; Zoning: R-1:SINGLE; Lot recorded as common interest (15.66 acres listed for entire lot)
• HOA & community: Community pool; Community clubhouse; Senior community; Villa Novia (building name)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio; Awnings; Partial fencing; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas oven; Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas oven; Gas cooktop; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.59%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,560
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1490 S ORANGE #123	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$135,000	$94	88
1440 S Orange Ave Spc 28	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$140,000	$97	81
1440 S Orange Ave #85	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$158,500	$110	79
1440 S Orange Ave. #52	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	24mo	$142,500	$99	74
1490 S Orange Ave #132	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,632 (+13%)	14mo	$205,000	$126	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $38,605
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $109,786
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92020

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,665 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $1,034

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
345 Dahlia Way El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1700	$4,200	$2.47	2d	1	0.40mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit G El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	22d	1	0.42mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit I El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	2d	1	0.42mi
948 S Sunshine Ave Unit 20 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	2d	1	0.47mi
923 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,050	$2.28	2d	1	0.47mi
921 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	2d	2	0.50mi
761 S Orange Ave Unit B El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,095	$2.10	2d	1	0.74mi
851 Taft Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1792	$3,850	$2.15	2d	1	0.81mi
1036 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1776	$4,350	$2.45	2d	1	0.87mi
1020 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1768	$4,100	$2.32	2d	1	0.87mi
1026 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1771	$4,000	$2.26	2d	1	0.87mi
633 S Johnson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,400	$2.86	2d	4	0.92mi
725 Franklin Ave Unit D El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	2d	1	0.93mi
553 S Magnolia Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	2d	2	0.95mi
802 Franklin Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	5d	2	0.98mi
802 Franklin Ave Unit 858 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	2d	1	0.98mi
758 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,945	$2.22	2d	3	1.05mi
957 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	2d	1	1.19mi
975 E Washington Ave Apt E El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	22d	1	1.22mi
265 Richardson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1024	$3,250	$3.17	3d	1	1.22mi
447 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	928	$2,300	$2.48	2d	1	1.23mi
602 S Mollison Ave Unit C El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	2d	1	1.24mi
351 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,395	$2.66	2d	1	1.32mi
620 E Lexington Ave #3 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	2d	1	1.32mi
148 Taft Ave Unit 7 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,895	$2.17	2d	1	1.35mi
1065 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	2d	1	1.35mi
1065 E Washington Ave Apt N El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	17d	1	1.35mi
800 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1040	$2,390	$2.30	2d	5	1.40mi
200 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,995	$2.10	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    status Active
16. 2026-05-21
    historical
17. 2026-04-04
    price $155,000
18. 2026-02-17
    price $159,900
19. 2026-02-02
    price $170,000
20. 2026-01-16
    status Active
21. 2026-01-10
    historical
22. 2025-11-19
    status Active
23. 2025-11-18
    historical
24. 2025-11-11
    price $175,000
25. 2025-10-30
    price $185,000
26. 2025-10-10
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,558
• − Management: −$2,558
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $10,571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,537
• After-tax cash flow: $9,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — El Cajon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cajon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 173,694
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,842
• Household income: $76,032
• Rent vs Own: 55.6% rent · 44.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3892.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Arab 7% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 21% Arabic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -724.49%
• Current HPI: 361.2373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $155,000 SDMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $159,900 SDMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $170,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $175,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $185,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $195,000 SDMLS