6518 Raintree Ln NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Manufactured public records · 243 Days on market

Built 1989 5,419 sqft lot $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home offering 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms plus an office in the desirable 55+ community of Brookhaven Village, where you OWN your land! Situated on a large lot with no rear neighbors, this property offers an incredible sense of privacy & tranquility. From the moment you enter, you’ll notice the care and updates that have gone into this home over the years. Features include updated windows, fresh interior paint, and modern flooring throughout. Both the roof and AC were replaced within the last 5 years, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. The water heater was just replaced (02/2026). At the front of the home, the Florida room is fully en

Key facts

• Modern flooring
• No rear neighbors
• Updated windows

Tags

• OWN YOUR LAND
• LARGE LOT
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• MODERN FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Association approval required
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $34 (monthly HOA); Total annual fees $408; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Brookhaven Village HOA with required monthly fee of $34; HOA amenities include clubhouse, pool, and shuffleboard court; Community features: clubhouse, pool, golf access, deed restrictions, buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Home faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Screened side porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Storage; Mature landscaping; Landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $165k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,592
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,437
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,158/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,347

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	3d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $165,000
15. 2026-03-12
    price $170,000
16. 2025-12-29
    price $165,000
17. 2025-10-18
    listed $169,900 Active
18. 2024-01-29
    status Pending
19. 2024-01-09
    listed $179,900 Active
20. 2023-11-08
    historical
21. 2023-10-19
    status Active
22. 2023-04-27
    historical
23. 2023-04-27
    status Active
24. 2023-04-26
    historical
25. 2023-04-26
    price $185,000
26. 2023-04-26
    listed $185,000
27. 2021-04-20
    soldstatus $105,000
28. 2021-04-13
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
29. 2021-03-23
    status Pending
30. 2021-03-19
    status Pending
31. 2021-01-27
    status Active
32. 2021-01-13
    status Pending
33. 2020-07-02
    listed $110,000 Active
34. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $97,000
35. 2018-02-23
    soldstatus $97,000 Sold
36. 2017-10-20
    status Pending
37. 2017-10-02
    listed $97,000 Active
38. 2007-04-09
    soldstatus $84,000
39. 2007-04-05
    soldstatus $84,000
40. 2007-02-10
    listed $89,500
41. 1997-11-03
    soldstatus $42,500
42. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,158 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,158
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $897
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$215
• After-tax cash flow: $3,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1275.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-09 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-13 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-02 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-23 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-02 Listed $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-05 Sold (MLS) $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-10 Listed $89,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,158 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.