2207 Alonda Ln NE · Lacey, WA 98516

$95,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 289 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $104k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice 2 bedroom home in the popular 55+ Community in Alonda Villa! Features open concept, large vinyl windows for natural light and cozy pellet stove for cold nights. Many new upgrades; new: carpet, laminate-wood floors, light fixtures, toilets, sinks, faucets, large walk-in shower in the primary bathroom, interior paint, exterior paint, all kitchen appliances, 30 year roof installed June 2025. Oversized carport, storage building, heat pump/AC & large enclosed patio for entertaining. Landscaped yard with beautiful pink dogwood tree. Close to shopping, I-5, & medical facilities. Home shows great!

Key facts

• Large vinyl windows
• Cozy pellet stove
• Open concept

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• LARGE VINYL WINDOWS
• COZY PELLET STOVE
• NEW CARPET
• NEW LAMINATE-WOOD FLOORS
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Alonda Villa Park (senior community); Park has clubhouse and common areas; Approximately 129 homes in the park; Land lease: $935

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (storage at back of carport)
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water; Community septic; Puget Sound Energy power; Xfinity cable and internet
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Four Seasons); One story; Very good condition; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Skirted with metal; Manufactured after 06/15/1976; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Awnings; Drapes; Landscaped yard; Patio/porch/deck; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub and 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace with a pellet stove; Water heater (electric, located on exterior wall)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Bay Elementary (588 students, 40% FRL); North Thurston High School (1,440 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $96k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $84,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.23%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,448
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2203 Alonda Ln NE	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	4mo	$95,000	$62	95
2516 Alonda Ln NE #2516	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	7mo	$135,250	$86	84
2204 Alonda Ln NE	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	2mo	$80,000	$60	76
2504 Alonda Ln NE	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+9%)	2mo	$114,900	$68	76
1418 Alonda Ln NE	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	8mo	$68,000	$47	72
2309 Alonda Ln NE	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-12%)	2mo	$73,000	$54	70
1606 Alonda Ln NE	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-5%)	14mo	$98,000	$67	68
2206 Alonda Ln NE	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	16mo	$159,000	$118	64
2003 Alonda Ln NE	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	19mo	$99,000	$74	61
1361 Alonda Ln NE	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	23mo	$149,500	$111	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $63,509
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $162,145
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $1,214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,268	-5% $1,241	+0% $1,214	+5% $1,186	+10% $1,159
Rent	-10% $1,031	-5% $1,122	+0% $1,214	+5% $1,305	+10% $1,396
Rate	-1.0pp $1,262	-0.5pp $1,238	base $1,214	+0.5pp $1,189	+1.0pp $1,163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
927 College Ln NE Unit A Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1390	$2,300	$1.65	44d	1	0.23mi
925 Bradley St NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,650	$1.89	44d	1	0.37mi
5224 15th Ave NE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,165	$2.46	14d	258	0.46mi
808 Taylor Ln NE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.5	1740	$2,195	$1.26	21d	1	0.52mi
5499 15th Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,106	$2.33	14d	26	0.62mi
1848 Mapleview Ct NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,000	$2.01	44d	1	0.73mi
606 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,725	$2.82	14d	7	0.85mi
2400 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1904	$2,795	$1.47	14d	3	1.00mi
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,010	$2.05	14d	14	1.13mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   status Active
3. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-12
   status Active
5. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-05
   price $95,900
7. 2026-01-05
   price $95,500
8. 2025-11-10
   price $102,500
9. 2025-10-23
   status Active
10. 2025-09-05
    status Active
11. 2025-09-01
    status Pending
12. 2025-08-26
    price $107,000
13. 2025-08-05
    price $109,500
14. 2025-07-25
    price $114,500
15. 2025-07-11
    status Active
16. 2025-07-04
    status Pending
17. 2025-06-19
    listed $119,500 Active
18. 2003-12-10
    soldstatus $27,000
19. 2003-09-26
    listed $29,900
20. 2000-09-12
    soldstatus $41,500
21. 2000-07-10
    listed $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $13,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,317
• After-tax cash flow: $11,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+131.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $95,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $95,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $102,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $107,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $109,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $114,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Listed $119,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-10 Sold (MLS) $27,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-26 Listed $29,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-12 Sold (MLS) $41,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-10 Listed $41,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid