10049 Hidden Hammock Loop · Ruskin, FL 34219

$430,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,226 sqft · Land · 201 Days on market

Built 2025 0.31 ac lot $163/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready. Discover the Plant home plan—a modern, thoughtfully designed four-bedroom, three bathroom layout that blends comfort and functionality. The open living and dining areas flow effortlessly, while the spacious primary suite features a tray ceiling, walk-in closet, and on-suite bath. A perfect work-from-home setup, and a large, covered lanai with sliding glass doors creates a peaceful outdoor retreat. Home will be ready to close in December/January. Featuring our AW Collection, this home is a cozy, light-filled sanctuary with warm floors, polished quartz countertops, and chrome/brush nickel finishes—perfect for lively evenings or quiet, restful weekends.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered lanai
• Work-from-home setup

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED LANAI
• WORK-FROM-HOME SETUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-396 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $317,995 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-104,238
• Equity at exit: $64,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-159,258
• Equity at exit: $37,179

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,738/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,682

Max offer price $359,968

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	23d	1	0.77mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	21d	1	0.83mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	19d	1	0.93mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	23d	1	0.95mi
8330 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2473	$2,900	$1.17	16d	1	1.01mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	3d	1	1.01mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	10d	1	1.02mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	16d	1	1.05mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	1d	32	1.10mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	23d	1	1.15mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	1.17mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	1.21mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	1.21mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	23d	1	1.35mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	10d	1	1.39mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	23d	1	1.40mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	23d	1	1.41mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	1.42mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	1.42mi
7518 117th Ln E Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2156	$3,100	$1.44	23d	1	1.48mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $430,000
3. 2026-04-14
   price $449,990
4. 2026-03-25
   price $462,990
5. 2026-03-05
   price $479,990
6. 2026-01-28
   price $489,011
7. 2026-01-19
   price $488,970
8. 2025-12-02
   price $484,715
9. 2025-10-28
   price $486,122
10. 2025-10-17
    price $485,625
11. 2025-10-09
    listed $495,625 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,738 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,738 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$3,738
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,053
• − Management: −$3,053
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$12,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,973
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $430,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $449,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $462,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $479,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $489,011 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $488,970 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $484,715 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $486,122 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $485,625 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $495,625 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid