2802 S 5th Ave #33 · Union Gap, WA 98903

$138,320

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 2019 $95/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bed, 2 bath home built in 2019 and located in Union Gap. Functional layout with great natural light, comfortable living space, and walk-in closets in every bedroom. Nice backyard for relaxing or entertaining, with convenient access to shopping and everyday amenities.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Natural light
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• NICE BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.5% in Union Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#315 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Union Gap School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $956 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $121,721 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.80%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,500
• List price: $138,320
• Delta: -2.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2203 S 5th Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,424 (-2%)	8mo	$250,000	$176	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $16,195
• Equity at exit: $20,624

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $63,690
• Equity at exit: $11,959

Cash invested: $38,730 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98903

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$725
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $138,320

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,580
• Closing costs: $4,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Samantha Ct Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,900	$1.32	21d	1	0.68mi
2212 S 1st Ave Unit 1-3 Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	13d	1	0.69mi
1917 Landon Ave Union Gap, WA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	43d	1	1.03mi
809 W Washington Ave Yakima, WA	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,595	$1.26	13d	1	1.15mi
1106 Spokane St Yakima, WA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	21d	1	1.30mi
1606 S 1st Ave Unit 1 Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	911	$1,250	$1.37	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $138,320 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,320 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,320 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,320 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,320 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $138,320 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,320 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $138,320 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,320 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $138,320 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,320 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,320 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,320 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,320 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,320 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $138,320 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-02-02
    listed $138,320 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Spacious 3 bed, 2 bath home built in 2019 and located in Union Gap. Functional layout with great natural light, comfortable living space, and walk-in closets in every bedroom. Nice backyard for relaxing or entertaining, with convenient access to shopping and everyday amenities.

18. 2019-08-16
    listed $94,999
19. 2019-08-16
    listed $94,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$719/yr (+$60/mo · 112.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,748
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$4,024
• Taxable income: $5,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,275
• After-tax cash flow: $6,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Gap School District
• NCES district ID: 5309150
• Math proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,603
• Composite: 48.54/100
• National rank: #4614
• State rank: #105 of 291 in WA

Livability — Union Gap

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #11294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union Gap, WA
• Population (ZIP): 19,010

Population outlook (Yakima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 256,514 people
• By 2030: 259,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 265,677 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 273,061 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 296,991 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 315,291 · +22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yakima

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 41.6% · R 55.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.90%
• Current HPI: 300.5753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+45.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $138,320 YAMLS
• 2019-08-16 Listed $94,999 YAMLS
• 2019-08-16 Listed $94,999 PACMLS

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $637 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.