107 Village Cir · Sacramento, CA 95838

$94,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Built 2018 Est $82k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a beautifully remodeled and move-in-ready home in the desirable Village Green community. This charming property has been thoughtfully updated within the past year, including brand-new flooring and a newer A/C system for added comfort and peace of mind. Enjoy a bright and open floor plan, an updated kitchen, spacious bedrooms, and plenty of natural light throughout. The outdoor area offers a relaxing space perfect for gardening, entertaining, or unwinding after a long day. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, schools, and easy freeway access, this home offers both comfort and incredible value in Sacramento.

Key facts

• Newer a/c system
• Outdoor area
• Easy freeway access

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEWER A/C SYSTEM
• OUTDOOR AREA
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Robla Elementary (urban): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #923 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.04%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,536
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Village Cir	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$94,000	$120	100
107 Village Cir #107	0.01mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	18mo	$94,900	$121	85
121 Village Cir #121	0.07mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	18mo	$94,900	$121	82
186 Village Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	800 (+2%)	9mo	$75,000	$94	77
93 Village Cir	0.06mi	2/1.5	816 (+4%)	14mo	$68,000	$83	76
133 Village Cir #9	0.08mi	2/1.0	840 (+7%)	10mo	$76,000	$90	76
113 Village Cir	0.04mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	14mo	$18,000	$25	73
123 Village Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0	720 (-8%)	10mo	$75,000	$104	69
116 Village Cir	0.05mi	2/1.0	672 (-14%)	9mo	$100,000	$149	67
51 Kit Ct	0.17mi	2/2.0	875 (+12%)	16mo	$60,000	$69	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $22,139
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $55,555
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95838

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $712	-5% $686	+0% $659	+5% $632	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $536	-5% $597	+0% $659	+5% $721	+10% $782
Rate	-1.0pp $706	-0.5pp $683	base $659	+0.5pp $635	+1.0pp $610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2125 North Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	21d	1	0.30mi
2125 North Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,095	$1.68	8d	1	0.30mi
2011 Bell Ave Unit B Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,045	$1.90	24d	1	0.42mi
2101 Bell Ave Unit 4 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$995	$1.81	20d	1	0.43mi
3720 Astoria St Unit 8 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	2d	1	0.56mi
3707 1/2 Marysville Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,395	$1.86	44d	1	0.66mi
1367 Harris Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,650	$2.75	2d	1	0.78mi
1138 North Ave Unit A Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	2d	1	1.00mi
3829 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,126	$2.12	44d	1	1.12mi
4015 May St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	875	$1,850	$2.11	24d	1	1.15mi
3729 Branch St Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	680	$1,300	$1.91	2d	1	1.27mi
3901 Cypress St Unit 921 Harris Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,950	$2.79	44d	1	1.28mi
3616 Branch St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,599	$1.88	2d	1	1.31mi
3228 Fairview Ct Apt 4 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	795	$1,395	$1.75	44d	1	1.33mi
3120 Howe Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	24d	1	1.36mi
2256 Frazier Ct Unit ADU Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	917	$2,350	$2.56	44d	1	1.37mi
2315 Edison Ave #3 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,225	$2.04	3d	1	1.39mi
3101 Truax Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$1,495	$2.24	8d	4	1.40mi
2253 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	980	$2,400	$2.45	44d	1	1.40mi
2503 Edison Ave Unit 2503-11 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,600	$1.94	24d	1	1.41mi
3307 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$2,200	$2.86	2d	1	1.42mi
2507 Edison Ave Unit 2507-11 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,600	$1.94	24d	1	1.42mi
2121 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,300	$2.24	44d	1	1.42mi
2501 Edison Ave Unit 2501-34 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	525	$1,300	$2.48	24d	1	1.44mi
2511 Edison Ave Unit 2511-52 D Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	525	$1,300	$2.48	24d	1	1.45mi
2511 Edison Ave Unit 2511-26 D Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	535	$1,300	$2.43	21d	1	1.45mi
2344 Jill Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	44d	1	1.46mi
2228 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	706	$1,914	$2.71	2d	6	1.49mi
2340 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	623	$1,300	$2.09	24d	1	1.49mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $714 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 44.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $6,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,622
• After-tax cash flow: $6,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robla Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633240
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,481
• Composite: 31.64/100
• National rank: #11126
• State rank: #923 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,677
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1834.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 21% Asian 18% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -391.80%
• Current HPI: 415.1804
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.74%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B