41854 Silver Vly · Yermo, CA 92365

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1980 39 ac lot $195/sqft · 28% above area Est $167k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * * JUST LISTED!!! * * * TWO MOBILE HOMES NEEDED REPAIRS SITTING IN A HUGE 40 ACRE LAND * * * WITH FUNCTIONAL WELL AND ELECTRICITY * * * ALL FENCED IN AND GATED FOR SECURITY * * * SELLER IS VERY MOTIVATED TO SELL * * *

Key facts

• 39.39 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 0515162110000
• HOA & community: Suburban community

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Single-story property; Total of 2 dwelling units
• Construction: Living area source: seller; Year built source: seller; No certified 433A
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; Rectangular lot shape; No pool; Has view; No accessory dwelling unit

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom and 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Cooling available (details in remarks)
• Interior features: One-level home; Main level includes 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms; Has cooling (see remarks); Has laundry (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (details in remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($462/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Silver Valley Unified (town): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #323 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,337 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,486
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 7.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $24,162
• Equity at exit: $80,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $82,636
• Equity at exit: $124,732

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92365

• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $180,000 Active 30-char remark
16. 2026-05-05
    historical $180,000 30-char remark
17. 2025-09-17
    historical
18. 2025-04-03
    listed $200,000 Active
19. 2024-05-31
    historical
20. 2023-05-22
    listed $350,000 Active
21. 2011-06-29
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$613
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,754
• Composite: 26.85/100
• National rank: #7105
• State rank: #323 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yermo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,514

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 20% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $180,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-05-22 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2011-06-29 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $153 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.