3181 Matecumbe Key Rd #33 · Cape Coral, FL 33955

$234,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,219 sqft · Condo public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1999 $819/mo HOA · 24% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turnkey Marina Living at Its Finest! This beautifully maintained villa comes fully furnished and is ready for you to move right in. The bright, open layout features a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom floor plan with a den. Enjoy your morning coffee or evening cocktail on the spacious, screened lanai with serene views of a Marina pond. Perfect for your vehicles and hobbies, the 2-car garage offers plenty of room for both a car and a golf cart. Located in a remarkably friendly neighborhood, you are just steps from the community pool and fitness center, and within easy walking distance to the local waterfront bar & grill. Hop in your golf cart, and you're just minutes from the 27-hole golf course a

Key facts

• Marina pond views
• Fitness center
• Community pool

Tags

• MARINA POND VIEWS
• SCREENED LANAI
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• 27 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• COUNTRY CLUB RESTAURANT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Pets allowed: cats and dogs
• Financial info: Total annual fees (association/condo) listed as $9,834; Total monthly fees listed as $819.50; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association: The Resort at BSM/Kayla Matias); Monthly HOA $99.50; Annual association fee $1,194; Condo fee $720 monthly; Association approval required; Association amenities: fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, golf course access, gated entry, security, vehicle restrictions; Community features: dog park, street lights, golf carts allowed, association-owned recreation, deed restrictions, buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Community security (association)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Southeast facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,816 sq ft
• Exterior features: Covered and enclosed patios/porches; Front porch; Rear porch; Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split-bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (19.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1481 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,444/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 226% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $235k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,447 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-53,567
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-64,154
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1481
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,830/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$819
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,769

Max offer price $189,447

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-124	-5% $-191	+0% $-257	+5% $-324	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-393	+0% $-257	+5% $-121	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-198	base $-257	+0.5pp $-318	+1.0pp $-380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3191 Matecumbe Key Rd #206 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$4,400	$3.99	25d	1	0.00mi
3181 Matecumbe Key Rd Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$2,450	$1.95	25d	2	0.06mi
3170 Matecumbe Key Rd #134 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,899	$1.60	25d	1	0.10mi
17947 Courtside Landings Cir Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$5,500	$4.11	25d	1	0.30mi
3020 Matecumbe Key Rd #103 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$5,200	$4.53	25d	1	0.40mi
2060 Matecumbe Key Rd Punta Gorda, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1271	$1,850	$1.45	25d	3	0.48mi
1001 Islamorada Blvd Unit 12A Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1365	$1,600	$1.17	17d	1	0.78mi
5050 Marianne Key Rd Unit 1B Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$4,500	$3.34	17d	1	0.98mi
4005 Big Pass Ln Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1423	$5,500	$3.87	17d	1	1.05mi
3929 NW 42nd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,995	$1.50	25d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $819 · $9,828/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $234,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-20
    listed $234,900 Active
14. 2015-06-30
    soldstatus $150,000
15. 2003-07-28
    soldstatus $175,000
16. 1999-07-14
    soldstatus $168,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,830 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,830 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$4,830
• − Insurance: −$6,293
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,306
• − Management: −$3,306
• − HOA: −$9,828
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$6,231
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+39.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $168,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,830 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.