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7019 San Carlos
B- Composite 67.99
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +22.2/30.0
  • ARV discount +14.6/15.0
  • DSCR +7.5/10.0
  • 1% rule +6.6/10.0
  • Schools +6.5/10.0
  • Appreciation +5.4/10.0
  • Livability +3.9/5.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.4/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -5.9

$299,900

7019 San Carlos · Carlsbad, CA 92011
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 156 Days on market
Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1974 Good condition 3,200 sqft lot $192/sqft · 16% below area Est $356k · 16% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

BEST LAKE LOCATION in 5 Star Gated Luxurious Lakeshore Gardens! 1 walking block to the best Carlsbad sandy beach in the world!! Huge 180 degree lake/water view and rear yard to feed the swans, geese, ducks, You name it!!! Massive living area with 2 large bedroom suites and 2 full bathrooms. Huge beautiful water/lake facing living room with picture windows! Primary bedroom features ensuite bathroom with dual sink, vanity, etc. A ton of expensive upgrades including solid surface flooring throughout and updated kitchen, All appliances stay including washer and dryer. You will love your multiple outdoor sitting areas and finished California room/workout room/sewing room/meditation/yoga room. ..

Key facts

  • Large shed
  • Skylights
  • 3,200 sq ft lot

Tags

OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLANSKYLIGHTSLARGE SHED

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
  • Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.0% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
  • Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
  • Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
  • San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
  • By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $263,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.32%
Cap rate
10.55%
Cash-on-cash
15.19%
DSCR
1.68
GRM
6.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$356,137
List price
$299,900
Delta
-15.79%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
7008 San Bartolo St #27 0.07mi 2/2.0 1,560 (0%) 0mo $220,000 $141 96
7027 San Bartolo St #43 0.03mi 2/2.0 1,440 (-8%) 2mo $173,000 $120 84
7269 San Luis St #244 0.07mi 2/2.0 1,461 (-6%) 3mo $170,000 $116 84
7241 San Luis St 0.27mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,546 (-1%) 2mo $400,000 $259 79
7228 San Benito St #351 0.20mi 2/2.0 1,464 (-6%) 3mo $175,000 $120 78
7219 San Benito St #344 0.19mi 2/2.0 1,440 (-8%) 1mo $463,500 $322 77
7239 San Luis St, #184 0.44mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,568 (+0%) 1mo $461,001 $294 73
7209 San Luis St #169 0.28mi 2/2.0 1,440 (-8%) 2mo $308,950 $215 72
7305 San Luis St #240 0.40mi 2/2.0 1,440 (-8%) 1mo $320,000 $222 68
7241 Santa Barbara St #300 0.16mi 2/2.0 1,344 (-14%) 2mo $175,000 $130 68
7002 San Bartolo St #30 0.09mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,781 (+14%) 5mo $341,500 $192 63
7311 San Luis St #237 0.40mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,359 (-13%) 4mo $236,550 $174 51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
19.3%
Equity multiple
2.03×
Total profit
$86,687
Equity at exit
$114,232
10-year hold
IRR
22.0%
Equity multiple
3.89×
Total profit
$242,385
Equity at exit
$161,435

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
22 active · 22 under contract
Months of supply
9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$399,400 ($281/sqft)
Median days on market
148 d
This list price
23% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-18.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92011

Home prices YoY
0.4%
Rents YoY
3.5%
Active inventory
130
Price-to-rent
6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,969 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,573
Tax est. 1.5%
$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
Insurance
$125
HOA
$0
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$834
Net cashflow
$1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623
Max offer price $299,900
Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $1,270 -5% $1,167 +0% $1,063 +5% $959 +10% $856
Rent -10% $750 -5% $906 +0% $1,063 +5% $1,220 +10% $1,377
Rate -1.0pp $1,214 -0.5pp $1,139 base $1,063 +0.5pp $985 +1.0pp $906

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$74,975
Closing costs
$8,997
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 2050 $8,500 $4.15 139d 1 0.16mi
7332 Escallonia Ct Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 1869 $5,200 $2.78 54d 1 0.38mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.0 1246 $5,250 $4.21 139d 1 0.41mi
6872 Shearwaters Dr Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.0 1246 $4,000 $3.21 94d 1 0.51mi
867 Hollyhock Ct Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.0 1263 $3,950 $3.13 18d 1 0.55mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.0 1404 $5,581 $3.98 113d 1 0.58mi
7481 Neptune Dr Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 2225 $7,500 $3.37 18d 1 0.67mi
6763 Camino del Prado Carlsbad, CA 3.0 3.0 1439 $5,099 $3.54 2d 1 0.67mi
7431 Linden Ter Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.0 1180 $3,200 $2.71 75d 1 0.67mi
6783 Heath Ct Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 1800 $5,500 $3.06 44d 1 0.70mi
634 Compass Ct Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 1869 $5,900 $3.16 44d 1 0.70mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.0 1399 $6,129 $4.38 112d 1 0.72mi
6863 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 1438 $4,200 $2.92 34d 1 0.73mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.0 1292 $3,850 $2.98 139d 1 0.80mi
901 Caminito Estrada 2.0 1.5 1180 $3,800 $3.22 63d 1 0.86mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.0 1188 $3,650 $3.07 139d 1 0.91mi
909 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 1300 $4,950 $3.81 10d 1 0.94mi
918 Caminito Estrada Unit E Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.0 1188 $3,600 $3.03 76d 1 0.95mi
6805 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.0 1292 $3,850 $2.98 79d 1 0.95mi
6822 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA 3.0 2.5 1443 $3,995 $2.77 75d 1 0.96mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.5 1110 $3,895 $3.51 139d 1 1.08mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA 2.0 2.0 1110 $4,148 $3.74 2d 2 1.11mi
1821 Wilton Rd Encinitas, CA 3.0 2.0 1699 $6,950 $4.09 67d 1 1.47mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA 2.0 2.5 1950 $7,000 $3.59 93d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Lot size estimated and listed as 0-1 unit/acre
Financial info
Land lease applies ($2,950)
HOA & community
Senior communityPark name: Lakeshore GardensCommunity features include biking and hikingManager approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Attached carport with 2 parking spacesParking available in Lakeshore Gardens park
Utilities
220V electrical throughoutEstimated lot and living area sizes
Home design
Single-story mobile home (24' x 65')Entry at level 1
Construction
Composition roofMobile home (mobile home remains)
Exterior features
Community heated poolHas a view

Interior

Kitchen
Kitchen included
Bedrooms
Includes guest/maid's quarters
Bathrooms
Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Forced air heatingCentral cooling
Interior features
One-level homeTurnkey conditionScreens on windowsUtility roomGuest/maid's quartersLiving roomPrimary bathroom
Laundry & utility
Indoor laundry with washer and dryer included

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-17
    days on market $299,900 Active 156 DOM
  2. 2026-09-16
    days on market $299,900 Active 155 DOM
  3. 2026-09-15
    days on market $299,900 Active 154 DOM
  4. 2026-09-14
    days on market $299,900 Active 153 DOM
  5. 2026-09-13
    days on market $299,900 Active 152 DOM
  6. 2026-09-12
    days on market $299,900 Active 151 DOM
  7. 2026-09-11
    days on market $299,900 Active 150 DOM
  8. 2026-09-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 144 DOM
  9. 2026-09-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 143 DOM
  10. 2026-09-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 142 DOM
  11. 2026-08-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 139 DOM
  12. 2026-08-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 138 DOM
  13. 2026-08-29
    days on market $299,900 Active 137 DOM
  14. 2026-08-28
    days on market $299,900 Active 136 DOM
  15. 2026-08-27
    days on market $299,900 Active 135 DOM
  16. 2026-08-26
    days on market $299,900 Active 134 DOM
  17. 2026-08-25
    days on market $299,900 Active 133 DOM
  18. 2026-08-24
    days on market $299,900 Active 132 DOM
  19. 2026-08-23
    days on market $299,900 Active 131 DOM
  20. 2026-08-22
    days on market $299,900 Active 130 DOM
  21. 2026-08-21
    days on market $299,900 Active 129 DOM
  22. 2026-08-20
    days on market $299,900 Active 128 DOM
  23. 2026-08-19
    days on market $299,900 Active 127 DOM
  24. 2026-08-18
    days on market $299,900 Active 126 DOM
  25. 2026-08-17
    days on market $299,900 Active 125 DOM
  26. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,900 Active 124 DOM
  27. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,900 Active 123 DOM
  28. 2026-08-14
    remarks 699-char remark
  29. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $299,900 Active 122 DOM
  30. 2026-08-13
    days on market $324,900 Active 121 DOM
  31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $324,900 Active 120 DOM
  32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $324,900 Active 119 DOM
  33. 2026-08-10
    days on market $324,900 Active 118 DOM
  34. 2026-08-09
    days on market $324,900 Active 117 DOM
  35. 2026-08-08
    days on market $324,900 Active 116 DOM
  36. 2026-08-06
    days on market $324,900 Active 114 DOM
  37. 2026-08-05
    days on market $324,900 Active 113 DOM
  38. 2026-08-04
    days on market $324,900 Active 112 DOM
  39. 2026-08-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 111 DOM
  40. 2026-07-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 108 DOM
  41. 2026-07-30
    days on market $324,900 Active 107 DOM
  42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $324,900 Active 106 DOM
  43. 2026-07-28
    days on market $324,900 Active 105 DOM
  44. 2026-07-26
    days on market $324,900 Active 103 DOM
  45. 2026-07-24
    days on market $324,900 Active 101 DOM
  46. 2026-07-23
    days on market $324,900 Active 100 DOM
  47. 2026-07-22
    days on market $324,900 Active 99 DOM
  48. 2026-07-21
    days on market $324,900 Active 98 DOM
  49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $324,900 Active 97 DOM
  50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $324,900 Active 95 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$47,630
− Mortgage interest
−$16,799
− Property taxes
−$4,498
− Insurance
−$1,500
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,810
− Management
−$3,810
− Depreciation
−$8,724
Taxable income
$8,488
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$2,037
After-tax cash flow
$10,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,800–$23,400 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with solid upgrades and a great location. Minor improvements could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and view
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pacific Rim Elementary Middle Aviara Oaks Middle High Sage Creek High

Schools (NCES district)

District
Carlsbad Unified
NCES district ID
0607500
Math proficiency
68% ▲ 2.00%
Reading proficiency
76% ▲ 2.00%
Median HH income
$81,200
Composite
65.11/100
National rank
#1068
State rank
#87 of 1400 in CA
B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Carlsbad

Score
78/100
State rank
#67
US rank
#2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Carlsbad, CA
County
San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
City population
114,373
Metro
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
Population (ZIP)
23,190
Household income
$159,235
Rent vs Own
36.0% rent · 64.0% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
3,678,185 people
By 2030
3,856,546 · +4.8%
By 2040
4,171,407 · +13.4%
By 2050
4,421,607 · +20.2%
By 2075
4,831,599 · +31.4%
By 2100
4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority White (64%)
Race & ethnicity
White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 12%
Common ancestry
Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home
82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

2024 margin
D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
2008→2024 swing
+6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
All cycles
2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-04-12 Listed $374,500 CRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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