7019 San Carlos · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$374,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 3,200 sqft lot $240/sqft · at area comps Est $381k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEST LAKE LOCATION in 5 Star Gated Lakeshore Gardens! Huge 179 degree lake view and rear yard to feed the swans! Spacious living area with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Beautiful living room facing the water view! Primary bedroom features ensuite bathroom with dual sink vanity. Lots of upgrades including solid surface flooring throughout and updated kitchen. You will love your multiple outdoor sitting areas. Plus washer and dryer convey! GREAT location with best shopping and restaurants right across the street! Must see. Call now! Serial 5435U/X

Key facts

• Large shed
• Skylights
• 3,200 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SKYLIGHTS
• LARGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $374k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $374k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $352,030 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.25%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,698
• List price: $374,500
• Delta: -1.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-1%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	88
7203 San Luis St #166	0.12mi	2/2.5	1,536 (-2%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	82
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	81
7224 San Benito St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	80
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+6%)	3mo	$513,300	$310	79
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-6%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	79
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	77
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	74
7313 San Luis St #236	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-1%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	72
7002 San Bartolo St #30	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (+14%)	2mo	$341,500	$192	66
7318 San Luis St	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	60
7311 San Luis St #237	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-13%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $159,228
• Equity at exit: $142,647

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $414,319
• Equity at exit: $201,592

Cash invested: $104,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,964
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,618/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,251
• Net cashflow: $2,119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,276

Max offer price $374,500

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,378	-5% $2,249	+0% $2,119	+5% $1,990	+10% $1,860
Rent	-10% $1,648	-5% $1,884	+0% $2,119	+5% $2,354	+10% $2,590
Rate	-1.0pp $2,308	-0.5pp $2,214	base $2,119	+0.5pp $2,022	+1.0pp $1,923

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,625
• Closing costs: $11,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	44d	1	0.16mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	44d	1	0.41mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.58mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.66mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	17d	1	0.72mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	44d	1	0.80mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	44d	1	0.91mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	1.08mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	1.11mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$5,359	$5.76	0d	6	1.34mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	0d	1	1.49mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,500 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,500 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,500 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,500 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,500 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $374,500 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,500 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,500 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,500 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,500 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,500 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    listed $374,500 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    BEST LAKE LOCATION in 5 Star Gated Lakeshore Gardens! Huge 179 degree lake view and rear yard to feed the swans! Spacious living area with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Beautiful living room facing the water view! Primary bedroom features ensuite bathroom with dual sink vanity. Lots of upgrades including solid surface flooring throughout and updated kitchen. You will love your multiple outdoor sitting areas. Plus washer and dryer convey! GREAT location with best shopping and restaurants right across the street! Must see. Call now! Serial 5435U/X

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,978
• − Property taxes: −$5,618
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,720
• − Management: −$5,720
• − Depreciation: −$10,895
• Taxable income: $20,699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,968
• After-tax cash flow: $20,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with solid upgrades and a great location. Minor improvements could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and view
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and view ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $374,500 CRMLS