7019 San Carlos · Carlsbad, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 82°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +21.0/30.0
- ARV discount +11.5/15.0
- DSCR +7.2/10.0
- Schools +6.5/10.0
- 1% rule +6.2/10.0
- Appreciation +5.4/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +3.4/5.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -5.5
$324,900
7019 San Carlos · Carlsbad, CA 92011
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured
· 116 Days on market
Manufactured home
likely 55+ (park)
Built 1974
3,200 sqft lot
$208/sqft
· 9% below area
Est $356k · 9% under
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
BEST LAKE LOCATION in 5 Star Gated Lakeshore Gardens! Huge 179 degree lake view and rear yard to feed the swans! Spacious living area with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Beautiful living room facing the water view! Primary bedroom features ensuite bathroom with dual sink vanity. Lots of upgrades including solid surface flooring throughout and updated kitchen. You will love your multiple outdoor sitting areas. Plus washer and dryer come with! GREAT location with best shopping and restaurants right across the street! Must see. Call now!
Key facts
- Large shed
- Skylights
- 3,200 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $917 ($11k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
- Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.0% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
- Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
- San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$295,659
(9.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.23% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.68%
- Cash-on-cash
- 12.09%
- DSCR
- 1.54
- GRM
- 6.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $356,375
- List price
- $324,900
- Delta
- -8.83%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,544 (-1%) | 4mo | $425,000 | $275 | 87 |
| 7269 San Luis St #244 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 | 1,461 (-6%) | 1mo | $170,000 | $116 | 85 |
| 7241 San Luis St | 0.27mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,546 (-1%) | 0mo | $400,000 | $259 | 81 |
| 7018 San Carlos St #60 | 0.03mi | 2/2.0 | 1,440 (-8%) | 8mo | $392,000 | $272 | 80 |
| 7228 San Benito St #351 | 0.20mi | 2/2.0 | 1,464 (-6%) | 1mo | $175,000 | $120 | 79 |
| 7207 Santa Barbara St #154 | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,656 (+6%) | 5mo | $513,300 | $310 | 77 |
| 7140 Santa Rosa St | 0.11mi | 2/2.0 | 1,440 (-8%) | 8mo | $191,000 | $133 | 76 |
| 7209 San Luis St #169 | 0.28mi | 2/2.0 | 1,440 (-8%) | 0mo | $308,950 | $215 | 74 |
| 7313 San Luis St #236 | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,548 (-1%) | 6mo | $450,000 | $291 | 71 |
| 7241 Santa Barbara St #300 | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 1,344 (-14%) | 1mo | $175,000 | $130 | 69 |
| 7002 San Bartolo St #30 | 0.09mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,781 (+14%) | 4mo | $341,500 | $192 | 64 |
| 7311 San Luis St #237 | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,359 (-13%) | 3mo | $236,550 | $174 | 53 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 16.2%
- Equity multiple
- 1.87×
- Total profit
- $78,776
- Equity at exit
- $123,754
10-year hold
- IRR
- 19.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.52×
- Total profit
- $229,440
- Equity at exit
- $174,892
Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 25 active · 11 under contract
- Months of supply
- 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $338,000 ($240/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 141 d
- This list price
- 40% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -4.6% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 92011
- Home prices YoY
- 0.4%
- Rents YoY
- 3.5%
- Active inventory
- 112
- Price-to-rent
- 6.8×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $4,003 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,704
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$406 /mo · $4,874/yr
- Insurance
- −$135
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$841
- Net cashflow
- $917
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,842
Max offer price
$324,900
Occupancy floor
72%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,141 | -5% $1,029 | +0% $917 | +5% $804 | +10% $692 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $600 | -5% $759 | +0% $917 | +5% $1,075 | +10% $1,233 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,080 | -0.5pp $999 | base $917 | +0.5pp $833 | +1.0pp $747 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $81,225
- Closing costs
- $9,747
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 17 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2050 | $8,500 | $4.15 | 93d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 7332 Escallonia Ct Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1869 | $5,200 | $2.78 | 7d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1246 | $5,250 | $4.21 | 93d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 6872 Shearwaters Dr Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1246 | $4,000 | $3.21 | 48d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1404 | $5,581 | $3.98 | 67d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 7431 Linden Ter Carlsbad, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1180 | $3,200 | $2.71 | 29d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1399 | $6,129 | $4.38 | 66d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 6863 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1438 | $4,400 | $3.06 | 30d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1292 | $3,850 | $2.98 | 93d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 901 Caminito Estrada | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1180 | $3,800 | $3.22 | 17d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1188 | $3,650 | $3.07 | 93d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 918 Caminito Estrada Unit E Carlsbad, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1188 | $3,600 | $3.03 | 30d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 6805 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1292 | $3,850 | $2.98 | 33d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 6822 Briarwood Dr Carlsbad, CA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1443 | $3,995 | $2.77 | 29d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1110 | $3,895 | $3.51 | 93d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 1821 Wilton Rd Encinitas, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1699 | $6,950 | $4.09 | 20d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1950 | $7,000 | $3.59 | 47d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Lot size estimated and listed as 0-1 unit/acre
- Financial info
- Land lease applies ($2,950)
- HOA & community
- Senior communityPark name: Lakeshore GardensCommunity features include biking and hikingManager approval requiredPets allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached carport with 2 parking spacesParking available in Lakeshore Gardens park
- Utilities
- 220V electrical throughoutEstimated lot and living area sizes
- Home design
- Single-story mobile home (24' x 65')Entry at level 1
- Construction
- Composition roofMobile home (mobile home remains)
- Exterior features
- Community heated poolHas a view
Interior
- Kitchen
- Kitchen included
- Bedrooms
- Includes guest/maid's quarters
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heatingCentral cooling
- Interior features
- One-level homeTurnkey conditionScreens on windowsUtility roomGuest/maid's quartersLiving roomPrimary bathroom
- Laundry & utility
- Indoor laundry with washer and dryer included
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $324,900 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $324,900 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $324,900 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $324,900 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $324,900 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $324,900 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $324,900 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $324,900 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $324,900 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $324,900 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $324,900 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $324,900 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $324,900 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $324,900 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $324,900 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $324,900 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $324,900 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $324,900 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $324,900 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $324,900 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $324,900 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $324,900 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $324,900 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $324,900 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $324,900 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $324,900 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $324,900 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $324,900 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $324,900 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $324,900 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-02pricedays on market $324,900 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $374,500 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $374,500 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $374,500 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $374,500 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $374,500 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $374,500 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $374,500 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $374,500 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $374,500 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $374,500 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $374,500 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $374,500 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $374,500 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $374,500 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $374,500 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $374,500 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $374,500 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $374,500 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $374,500 Active 51 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $48,030
- − Mortgage interest
- −$18,199
- − Property taxes
- −$4,874
- − Insurance
- −$1,624
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,842
- − Management
- −$3,842
- − Depreciation
- −$9,452
- Taxable income
- $6,197
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,487
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,513/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo
75/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $7,800–$23,400 screening
This manufactured home is in good condition with solid upgrades and a great location. Minor improvements could further enhance its curb appeal and value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and view ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Pacific Rim Elementary
Middle
Aviara Oaks Middle
High
Sage Creek High
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Carlsbad Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0607500
- Math proficiency
- 68% ▲ 2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 76% ▲ 2.00%
- Median HH income
- $81,200
- Composite
- 65.11/100
- National rank
- #1068
- State rank
- #87 of 1400 in CA
B
Composite livability gradescore 78/100
Livability — Carlsbad
- Score
- 78/100
- State rank
- #67
- US rank
- #2526
Category grades
Amenities A+
Commute A+
Cost of living F
Crime B
Employment A+
Housing C+
Health & safety D+
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Carlsbad, CA
- County
- San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
- City population
- 114,373
- Metro
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 23,190
- Household income
- $159,235
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 3,678,185 people
- By 2030
- 3,856,546 · +4.8%
- By 2040
- 4,171,407 · +13.4%
- By 2050
- 4,421,607 · +20.2%
- By 2075
- 4,831,599 · +31.4%
- By 2100
- 4,832,502 · +31.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority White (64%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 12%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%
Political lean MEDSL · San Diego
- 2024 margin
- D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 1.75%
- Current HPI
- 399.8502
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.54%
- Metro
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-04-12 Listed $374,500 CRMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…