32796 Rustic Rise Rd · Pasadena Hills, FL 33576

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 4,500 sqft lot $133/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The builder is offering buyers up to $25,000 towards closing costs with the use of a preferred lender and title company. Mirada showcases new homes in San Antonio, FL, and is home to a 15-acre MetroLagoon, the largest in the country. The community is conveniently located off State Road 52 and just 5 minutes from 1-75. The Market at Mirada is within the community, where you'll find a Publix grocery store, shops, and restaurants. For local entertainment, you'll find The Grove, Wiregrass Mall, and Tampa Premium Outlets, along with many other dining options all within a short drive. Charming, Historic Downtown Dade City isn't far and offers quaint shopping and dining options

Key facts

• Dog parks
• Golf cart paths
• Tot lots

Tags

• WALKING TRAILS
• GOLF CART PATHS
• TOT LOTS
• DOG PARKS
• SMART HOME SYSTEM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-539/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 364 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,641 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-48,991
• Equity at exit: $53,906

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-62,706
• Equity at exit: $41,978

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,413

Max offer price $292,049

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32650 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,600	$1.41	12d	1	0.10mi
32783 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,200	$1.19	24d	1	0.18mi
32909 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,350	$1.51	24d	1	0.27mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	3d	1	0.28mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	20d	1	0.28mi
10888 Quail Grove Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,400	$1.42	24d	1	0.29mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	24d	1	0.54mi
11210 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	5d	1	0.59mi
11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	15d	1	0.66mi
32094 Hawthorne Cottage Pl San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,795	$1.44	24d	1	0.69mi
32118 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,400	$1.39	24d	1	0.75mi
32112 Pond Apple Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	0.75mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.76mi
10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	18d	1	0.80mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.82mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	24d	1	0.82mi
10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,050	$1.22	15d	1	0.83mi
10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,400	$1.40	24d	1	0.85mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,050	$1.25	24d	1	0.95mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	0.97mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	18d	1	0.97mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	24d	1	0.97mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	24d	1	0.99mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	20d	1	1.00mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	22d	1	1.01mi
10443 Lavender Aster Trl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,950	$1.17	24d	1	1.03mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	24d	1	1.08mi
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,300	$1.44	24d	1	1.08mi
10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	4d	1	1.10mi
11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,550	$2.16	2d	21	1.12mi
10171 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	24d	1	1.14mi
10019 Curley Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	1.19mi
10114 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	20d	1	1.19mi
10110 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,995	$1.32	24d	1	1.20mi
10121 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	24d	1	1.20mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	18d	1	1.25mi
32067 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,000	$1.22	5d	1	1.25mi
32010 Spiceberry St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	13d	1	1.27mi
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	20d	1	1.28mi
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	22d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-21
   soldstatus $299,990 Closed
2. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-18
   price $299,990
4. 2026-03-11
   price $304,990
5. 2026-02-19
   price $309,990
6. 2026-02-01
   listed $311,990 Active
7. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $815,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,586/yr (+$132/mo · 175.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 31.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-63.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $304,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listed $311,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $815,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $904 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.