12829 Wildwood Dr · Lakeside, OR 97459

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · Other public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1946 2.85 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

Key facts

• 2.85 acre piece
• 2.85 acre lot
• Built 1946

Tags

• 2.85 ACRE PIECE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#215 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Reedsport SD 105 (town): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #143 of 183 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.80%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $102,171
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.20×
• Total profit: $280,112
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97459

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,925/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $455	+0% $415	+5% $376	+10% $337
Rent	-10% $279	-5% $347	+0% $415	+5% $483	+10% $552
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $451	base $415	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-01-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

2. 2026-01-20
   status Pending 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

3. 2025-12-19
   status Active 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

4. 2025-12-19
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

5. 2025-11-27
   status Pending 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

6. 2025-11-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

7. 2025-10-28
   price $139,000

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

8. 2025-10-28
   price $139,000 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

9. 2025-09-18
   price $160,000 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

10. 2025-09-18
    status Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

11. 2025-09-18
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

12. 2025-09-18
    price $160,000

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

13. 2025-06-04
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

14. 2025-06-04
    listed $150,000 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Beautiful 2.85 acre piece of property nestled into the woods and close to the Oregon national dunes. Home is of no value and well and septic will have to be replaced. Fire dept has agreed if new buyer wishes the local fire Dept can do a practice burn on the home to clear area for a new build. OWNER OCCUPIED - Drive bys are ok but please make an appt to walk on property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥80°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,925
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $2,936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$705
• After-tax cash flow: $4,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reedsport SD 105
• NCES district ID: 4110410
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,496
• Composite: 31.47/100
• National rank: #11187
• State rank: #143 of 183 in OR

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #14610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,328

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.02%
• Current HPI: 887.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-01-20 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-11-27 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-11-27 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $139,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $139,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $160,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $160,000 RMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $150,000 RMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $150,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,925 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.