32 Foxtail Ave · Middleburg, FL 32068

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 1.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWNER ANXIOUS TO SELL! THIS ONE IS A GREAT FAMILY HOME. ALL REASONABLE OFFERS CONSIDERED. This property is beautiful with huge oaks and curb appeal. The mobile home has tile and wood floors, cozy family room w/fireplace,above ground pool large kitchen. Beautiful remodeled master bath, decking galore and kid friendly yard.

Key facts

• Existing utilities
• Private well
• 1.16 acre lot

Tags

• EXISTING UTILITIES
• PRIVATE WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clay Hill Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 442 students, 100% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $110k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.65%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,372
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Plankton Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,020 (-2%)	13mo	$299,000	$148	53
4541 Johns Cemetery Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-13%)	7mo	$308,000	$173	48
315 Horsetail Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,278 (+11%)	7mo	$300,000	$132	39
300 N Mimosa Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-12%)	16mo	$289,000	$161	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $42,996
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $118,322
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,092

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,003	-5% $972	+0% $941	+5% $910	+10% $878
Rent	-10% $760	-5% $851	+0% $941	+5% $1,031	+10% $1,121
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $969	base $941	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $883

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4371 Johns Cemetery Rd Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	0.79mi
931 Voyager Trl Middleburg, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1618	$2,147	$1.33	4d	6	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-16
   status Active
3. 2025-06-19
   status Pending
4. 2025-06-19
   historical
5. 2025-06-18
   listed $110,000 Active
6. 2011-09-14
   soldstatus $65,000
7. 2011-09-02
   historical 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   OWNER ANXIOUS TO SELL! THIS ONE IS A GREAT FAMILY HOME. ALL REASONABLE OFFERS CONSIDERED. This property is beautiful with huge oaks and curb appeal. The mobile home has tile and wood floors, cozy family room w/fireplace,above ground pool large kitchen. Beautiful remodeled master bath, decking galore and kid friendly yard.

8. 2011-09-01
   soldstatus $65,000 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   OWNER ANXIOUS TO SELL! THIS ONE IS A GREAT FAMILY HOME. ALL REASONABLE OFFERS CONSIDERED. This property is beautiful with huge oaks and curb appeal. The mobile home has tile and wood floors, cozy family room w/fireplace,above ground pool large kitchen. Beautiful remodeled master bath, decking galore and kid friendly yard.

9. 2011-01-06
   listed $69,500 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   OWNER ANXIOUS TO SELL! THIS ONE IS A GREAT FAMILY HOME. ALL REASONABLE OFFERS CONSIDERED. This property is beautiful with huge oaks and curb appeal. The mobile home has tile and wood floors, cozy family room w/fireplace,above ground pool large kitchen. Beautiful remodeled master bath, decking galore and kid friendly yard.

10. 2010-12-12
    historical 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Charming updated 4 bedroom 2 bath DWMH on 1.14 acres. Home features a formal livingroom and den with fireplace, hardwood floors, ceramic tile bath with garden tub, fenced yard with above ground pool,fenced play yard,front and rear decks,shed with workshop, equipment shed AND A ONE YEAR HOME WARRANTY!

11. 2010-06-12
    listed $84,900 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Charming updated 4 bedroom 2 bath DWMH on 1.14 acres. Home features a formal livingroom and den with fireplace, hardwood floors, ceramic tile bath with garden tub, fenced yard with above ground pool,fenced play yard,front and rear decks,shed with workshop, equipment shed AND A ONE YEAR HOME WARRANTY!

12. 2009-11-23
    historical
13. 2009-05-23
    listed $120,000
14. 2008-10-20
    historical
15. 2008-04-21
    listed $129,900
16. 2008-04-08
    historical
17. 2007-10-08
    listed $125,900
18. 1989-05-15
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $10,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $8,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+511.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-06-19 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $110,000 realMLS
• 2011-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2011-09-01 Sold (MLS) $65,000 realMLS
• 2011-01-06 Listed $69,500 realMLS
• 2010-12-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2010-06-12 Listed $84,900 realMLS
• 2009-11-23 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-05-23 Listed $120,000 realMLS
• 2008-10-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-04-21 Listed $129,900 realMLS
• 2008-04-08 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-10-08 Listed $125,900 realMLS
• 1989-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,877 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.