🏷️ Likely Rental
4535 Muris Ln · Pasco, WA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $604 – $1,122
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 99°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 7/10 · Major
- Unhealthy air days now
- 9 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 11 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +15.0/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +5.0/10.0
- DSCR +5.0/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.4/10.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$1,895
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
We do not accept 3rd party applications or viewing requests. 3 bed, 2 bath, 1382 sqft. house in West Pasco Interior: * Entry living room with bay window * Kitchen has lots of counter space with eat-at bar and pantry * Family room on the kitchen * Primary bedroom has attached bath and oversized closet * 2 additional bedrooms and 1 bathroom Exterior: * Attached 2 car garage * Concrete patio Additional Lease Information: 1 year lease term No Pets Deposit & Fees Include: $1,336 Refundable Deposit $269 Non-Refundable Inspection Fee $190 Non-Refundable Carpet Cleaning Fee Rental Terms Rent: $1,895 Application Fee: $49 Security Deposit: $1,895 Available 5/10/26 Pet Policy
Key facts
- 6,969 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 2007
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
- Recommended offer: $2k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 1049.9% vs local median 3.0% in Pasco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#104 in WA, #1,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-.
- Pasco School District (suburban): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #242 of 291 in WA (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 981 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (517 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Franklin County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $531 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($2k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 110.96% ✓
- Cap rate
- 1049.92%
- Cash-on-cash
- 3727.24%
- DSCR
- 166.84
- GRM
- 0.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $362,831
- List price
- $1,895
- Delta
- -99.48%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4539 Muris Ln | 0.01mi | 3/2.0 | 1,382 (0%) | 2mo | $379,900 | $275 | 98 |
| 4405 Campolina Ln | 0.11mi | 3/2.0 | 1,436 (+4%) | 7mo | $400,000 | $279 | 83 |
| 4115 Minorca Ln | 0.34mi | 3/2.0 | 1,382 (0%) | 5mo | $365,000 | $264 | 80 |
| 8212 Quadra Dr | 0.35mi | 3/2.0 | 1,382 (0%) | 6mo | $300,000 | $217 | 78 |
| 4614 Tamworth Ln | 0.09mi | 3/2.0 | 1,527 (+10%) | 1mo | $380,000 | $249 | 78 |
| 4615 Clydesdale Ln | 0.39mi | 3/2.0 | 1,382 (0%) | 6mo | $399,000 | $289 | 77 |
| 8608 Heathrow Ct | 0.37mi | 3/2.0 | 1,440 (+4%) | 1mo | $377,500 | $262 | 75 |
| 9607 Palomino Dr | 0.60mi | 3/2.0 | 1,436 (+4%) | 5mo | $405,000 | $282 | 61 |
| 9703 Percheron Dr | 0.65mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,436 (+4%) | 1mo | $380,000 | $265 | 58 |
| 7857 Coldwater Dr | 0.56mi | 3/2.0 | 1,507 (+9%) | 1mo | $460,000 | $305 | 58 |
| 4206 Kitimat Ln | 0.30mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,578 (+14%) | 5mo | $414,900 | $263 | 54 |
| 10004 Sunset | 0.56mi | 3/2.0 | 1,586 (+15%) | 3mo | $490,310 | $309 | 47 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 194.32×
- Total profit
- $102,575
- Equity at exit
- $283
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 408.28×
- Total profit
- $216,103
- Equity at exit
- $164
Cash invested: $531 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Washington
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 99301
- Rents YoY
- 2.0%
- Active inventory
- 705
- Price-to-rent
- 0.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,103 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$10
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$2 /mo · $28/yr
- Insurance
- −$1
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$442
- Net cashflow
- $1,648
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $474
- Closing costs
- $57
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 13 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4119 Bond Ln Pasco, WA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1382 | $2,300 | $1.66 | 20d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 9315 Chapel Hill Blvd Pasco, WA | 1.0–4.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1015 | $1,507 | $1.48 | 13d | 10 | 0.46mi |
| 4519 Appaloosa Ln Pasco, WA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1616 | $2,295 | $1.42 | 20d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5801 Road 92 Pasco, WA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1449 | $2,250 | $1.55 | 13d | 4 | 0.79mi |
| 8011 Hudson Dr Pasco, WA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1480 | $2,200 | $1.49 | 43d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 7820 Three Rivers Dr Pasco, WA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1440 | $2,300 | $1.60 | 20d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 9417 Vincenzo Dr Pasco, WA | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1675 | $2,195 | $1.31 | 43d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 10305 Chapel Hill Blvd Pasco, WA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1045 | $1,810 | $1.73 | 13d | 8 | 1.04mi |
| 9904 Mia Ln Pasco, WA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1509 | $1,950 | $1.29 | 20d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 6102 Road 68 Pasco, WA | 2.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1007 | $1,548 | $1.54 | 13d | 4 | 1.23mi |
| 6212 Road 68 Pasco, WA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 953 | $1,546 | $1.62 | 13d | 20 | 1.29mi |
| 6626 Chapel Hill Blvd Pasco, WA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1191 | $2,100 | $1.76 | 13d | 19 | 1.44mi |
| 6701 W Argent Rd Pasco, WA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1014 | $1,795 | $1.77 | 20d | 3 | 1.49mi |
Listing history 3 events
-
2026-05-10historical $1,895
-
2026-05-07$1,895
-
2026-05-07$1,895 Active 783-char remark
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $25,233
- − Mortgage interest
- −$106
- − Property taxes
- −$28
- − Insurance
- −$9
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,019
- − Management
- −$2,019
- − Depreciation
- −$55
- Taxable income
- $20,996
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$5,039
- After-tax cash flow
- $14,738/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pasco School District
- NCES district ID
- 5306570
- Math proficiency
- 31% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▬ 0.00%
- Median HH income
- $54,454
- Composite
- 33.78/100
- National rank
- #10401
- State rank
- #242 of 291 in WA
Livability — Pasco
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #104
- US rank
- #1999
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Pasco, WA
- County
- Franklin County · 87,044 people
- City population
- 87,044
- Metro
- Kennewick-Richland, WA
- Population (ZIP)
- 87,044
- Household income
- $87,951
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1556.0
Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 108,530 people
- By 2030
- 118,705 · +9.4%
- By 2040
- 140,053 · +29.0%
- By 2050
- 162,360 · +49.6%
- By 2075
- 217,667 · +100.6%
- By 2100
- 264,533 · +143.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 55% White 37% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 51%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 21% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 0%
Political lean MEDSL · Franklin
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+22.7) · D 37.4% · R 60.1% · Other 2.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.0pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -22.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+22.7 2020: R+14.5 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+25.2 2008: R+23.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -331.74%
- Current HPI
- 284.481
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.99%
- Metro
- Kennewick-Richland, WA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.65%
- F500 in state
- 22
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 2 | $269B |
|
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| Technology / Retail | 1 | $638B |
|
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| Technology | 1 | $245B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 1 | $38B |
|
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| Food / Beverage | 1 | $36B |
|
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| Automotive / Trucks | 1 | $34B |
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-10 Rental Removed $1,895 APPFOLIO
- 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $1,895 APPFOLIO
Property tax history
+5.1%/yrLatest (2026): $3,136 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…