618 Mandarine Ln · Brownsville, TX 78521

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2001 5,000 sqft lot $195/sqft · at area comps Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, well-kept starter home nestled in a peaceful rural neighborhood, yet conveniently close to the Space X facility site.

Key facts

• Rural neighborhood
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• RURAL NEIGHBORHOOD
• CLOSE TO SPACE X FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-218/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,960 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,425
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: 1.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-24,701
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $15,881
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,122/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,643

Max offer price $194,792

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
365 Mango Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	13d	1	0.32mi
250 Kiwi Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,400	$1.36	21d	1	0.54mi
1340 Daytona Beach Ct Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	43d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Charming, well-kept starter home nestled in a peaceful rural neighborhood, yet conveniently close to the Space X facility site.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $198,000 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Charming, well-kept starter home nestled in a peaceful rural neighborhood, yet conveniently close to the Space X facility site.

3. 2026-04-08
   price $195,000 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Charming, well-kept starter home nestled in a peaceful rural neighborhood, yet conveniently close to the Space X facility site.

4. 2026-01-24
   price $198,750 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Charming, well-kept starter home nestled in a peaceful rural neighborhood, yet conveniently close to the Space X facility site.

5. 2026-01-09
   price $199,500 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Charming, well-kept starter home nestled in a peaceful rural neighborhood, yet conveniently close to the Space X facility site.

6. 2025-11-19
   listed $199,560 Active 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Charming, well-kept starter home nestled in a peaceful rural neighborhood, yet conveniently close to the Space X facility site.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,623 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,502/yr (+$125/mo · 70.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,122
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$3,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $198,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $195,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $198,750 RGVMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $199,500 RGVMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $199,560 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,122 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.