Sibley Plan · Otsego, MN 55301

$343,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · SingleFamily · 455 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home boasts a low-maintenance and modern design. The owner's suite is tucked away at the front of the home, offering access to an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. An open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and Great Room to maximize interior space. Two secondary bedrooms are situated to the side of the home for enhanced comfort and privacy.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• KITCHEN DINING ROOM GREAT ROOM
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $343,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $372,779.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otsego Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 243 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 455 days — a 12% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $258,914 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 455 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.10%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,779
• List price: $343,990
• Delta: -7.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10701 58th St NE	1.66mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+30%)	42mo	$335,000	$202	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-94,172
• Equity at exit: $55,583

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-125,375
• Equity at exit: $32,231

Cash invested: $104,378 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 5 under contract
• Median asking: $350,890 ($269/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 55301

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,955
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$466 /mo · $5,592/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,261

Max offer price $295,976

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-273	-5% $-402	+0% $-531	+5% $-660	+10% $-788
Rent	-10% $-735	-5% $-633	+0% $-531	+5% $-429	+10% $-326
Rate	-1.0pp $-343	-0.5pp $-436	base $-531	+0.5pp $-627	+1.0pp $-726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,195
• Closing costs: $11,183
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7645 Lachman Ave NE Otsego, MN	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,300	$1.48	0d	1	1.09mi
7712 Lachman Ave NE Albertville, MN	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,259	$1.48	87d	1	1.15mi
10740 County Road 37 NE Albertville, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,845	$1.87	0d	6	1.23mi
8833 County Road 37 NE Saint Michael, MN	4.0	3.0	1680	$2,700	$1.61	93d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $343,990 Active 455 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $343,990 Active 454 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $343,990 Active 453 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $343,990 Active 452 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $343,990 Active 451 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $343,990 Active 450 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $343,990 Active 449 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $343,990 Active 448 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $343,990 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $343,990 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $343,990 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $343,990 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $343,990 Active 443 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $343,990 Active 437 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 436 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 435 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 432 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $343,990 Active 430 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $343,990 Active 429 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $343,990 Active 428 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $343,990 Active 427 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $343,990 Active 426 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $343,990 Active 425 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $343,990 Active 424 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $343,990 Active 423 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $343,990 Active 422 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $343,990 Active 421 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $343,990 Active 420 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $343,990 Active 419 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $343,990 Active 418 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $343,990 Active 417 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $343,990 Active 416 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $343,990 Active 415 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $343,990 Active 414 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $343,990 Active 413 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $343,990 Active 412 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $343,990 Active 411 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $343,990 Active 410 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $343,990 Active 409 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $343,990 Active 407 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $343,990 Active 406 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 405 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 404 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 401 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $343,990 Active 399 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $343,990 Active 398 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $343,990 Active 396 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $341,990 Active 394 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $341,990 Active 393 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $341,990 Active 392 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,881
• − Property taxes: −$5,592
• − Insurance: −$1,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − Depreciation: −$10,844
• Taxable loss: −$13,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,140
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Otsego Elementary B MN #157/857 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Rogers Middle School B+ MN #19/258 Nat'l #1,545/14,009 High Rogers Senior High B MN #28/471 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Wright County · 142,526 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,482
• Household income: $129,232
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · South Korea, China, Canada

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Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 233.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $337,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $362,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $358,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $356,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $354,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $347,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $343,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $347,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-25 Listed $333,990 Zillow