2410 Lancaster Dr SE #957 · Salem, OR 97317

$84,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $139k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this light-filled home situated on a desirable corner lot with mature landscaping! This spacious floor plan features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with durable laminate flooring throughout. Fresh exterior paint adds great curb appeal, while the large covered front porch offers the perfect place to relax and enjoy the surroundings. The covered carport includes ample storage plus a dedicated shop space ideal for hobbies, projects, or extra workspace. A wheelchair-accessible ramp off the carport provides added convenience and accessibility.

Key facts

• Mature landscaping
• Fresh exterior paint
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• AMPLE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Separate shop/outbuilding; Mobile home make: Marlette, serial H006488A
• HOA & community: Adult park; Park rent includes garbage and swimming pool

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport; 2 garage spaces; Separate shop with storage (adjacent to carport)
• Security: Gated community access (directions reference gate)
• Utilities: City sewer; Park rent includes swimming pool access
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Front door entry
• Construction: Built in 1992; Wood siding (T111); Pier foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Mature landscaping; Covered front porch; Covered deck / covered patio; Wheelchair-accessible ramp (off carport); Handicap amenities (refer to remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Laminate flooring throughout; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Garbage service included in park rent

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $82,740 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.21%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2232 42nd Ave SE #704	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+5%)	1mo	$58,000	$45	77
2730 Oakland Lp SE	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-3%)	6mo	$35,000	$29	75
2750 Oakland Loop SE	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-3%)	9mo	$40,000	$34	72
2232 42nd Ave SE #792	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	10mo	$34,000	$30	72
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+14%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	69
4454 Eden St SE	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-10%)	12mo	$112,000	$101	64
3100 Turner Rd SE #523	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	1mo	$132,000	$115	57
3100 Turner Rd S #220	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+11%)	1mo	$199,500	$146	49
3100 Turner Rd SE #625	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+12%)	0mo	$235,000	$171	43
3100 Turner Rd SE #223	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	12mo	$225,000	$167	43
3100 Turner Rd SE #424	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+11%)	10mo	$217,500	$159	42
3100 Turner Rd SE #311	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+11%)	10mo	$155,000	$113	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $28,511
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $77,453
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,250/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $718	-5% $694	+0% $670	+5% $647	+10% $623
Rent	-10% $545	-5% $608	+0% $670	+5% $733	+10% $795
Rate	-1.0pp $713	-0.5pp $692	base $670	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.13mi
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	15d	1	0.38mi
4435 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	807	$1,445	$1.79	24d	1	0.40mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,699	$1.84	15d	1	0.49mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	44d	1	0.55mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,799	$1.93	15d	1	0.87mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	24d	1	0.90mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	15d	5	0.95mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	44d	1	1.02mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	15d	1	1.14mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,554	$1.67	15d	25	1.25mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	15d	26	1.26mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	15d	1	1.29mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	24d	1	1.29mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4435-201 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	888	$1,525	$1.72	24d	1	1.47mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4437-206 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	932	$1,525	$1.64	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 551-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $84,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$1,250
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $7,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,712
• After-tax cash flow: $6,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+29.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $84,000 WVMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $99,500 WVMLS
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $110,000 WVMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2025-03-23 Listed $120,000 WVMLS
• 2017-09-21 Sold (MLS) $60,500 WVMLS
• 2017-09-14 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2017-09-14 Listed $58,500 WVMLS
• 1996-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,250 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.