113 Southfield Rd · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$609,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,909 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1989 0.65 ac lot $320/sqft · 24% below area Est $798k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sprawling Manors 3 Bedroom, Features vaulted ceilings, 2 Full baths, Master bedroom suite, All spacious rooms, Wood burning stove, New cesspool, 2 Car attached garage w/rv side space. All appliances STAY! Inground sprinklers. Seated fenced.65 acre, Fenced property, Skylights, Retractable Awnings.Close to all, Schools, Shopping, Splish splash, Beaches, and Wine Country., Additional information: Appearance:Ex,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

Key facts

• New cesspool
• In ground sprinklers
• Fenced property

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• NEW CESSPOOL
• IN GROUND SPRINKLERS
• FENCED PROPERTY
• SKYLIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $610k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $610k).
• Recommended offer: $555k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.3% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $171k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($555k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $610k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $555,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.67%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $797,724
• List price: $609,990
• Delta: -23.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Southfield Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,888 (-1%)	6mo	$749,000	$397	89
92 Donna Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,075 (+9%)	9mo	$705,000	$340	54
139 May Dr	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,744 (-9%)	11mo	$773,000	$443	46
166 Williams Way S	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,652 (-14%)	10mo	$760,000	$460	42
320 Williams Way S	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,125 (+11%)	8mo	$780,000	$367	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $178,850
• Equity at exit: $283,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $491,227
• Equity at exit: $443,601

Cash invested: $170,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,199
• Tax from tax record: −$953 /mo · $11,442/yr
• Insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $1,519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,578

Max offer price $609,990

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,864	-5% $1,691	+0% $1,519	+5% $1,346	+10% $1,173
Rent	-10% $926	-5% $1,222	+0% $1,519	+5% $1,815	+10% $2,111
Rate	-1.0pp $1,826	-0.5pp $1,674	base $1,519	+0.5pp $1,360	+1.0pp $1,200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $152,498
• Closing costs: $18,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	0d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $609,990 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $609,990 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $609,990 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $609,990 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $609,990 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,990 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,990 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $639,990 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,990 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $639,990 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $639,990 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $639,990 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,990 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,990 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $639,990 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $649,990 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Sprawling Manors 3 Bedroom, Features vaulted ceilings, 2 Full baths, Master bedroom suite, All spacious rooms, Wood burning stove, New cesspool, 2 Car attached garage w/rv side space. All appliances STAY! Inground sprinklers. Seated fenced.65 acre, Fenced property, Skylights, Retractable Awnings.Close to all, Schools, Shopping, Splish splash, Beaches, and Wine Country., Additional information: Appearance:Ex,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

17. 2026-04-24
    price $659,990 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Sprawling Manors 3 Bedroom, Features vaulted ceilings, 2 Full baths, Master bedroom suite, All spacious rooms, Wood burning stove, New cesspool, 2 Car attached garage w/rv side space. All appliances STAY! Inground sprinklers. Seated fenced.65 acre, Fenced property, Skylights, Retractable Awnings.Close to all, Schools, Shopping, Splish splash, Beaches, and Wine Country., Additional information: Appearance:Ex,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

18. 2026-04-07
    price $669,990 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Sprawling Manors 3 Bedroom, Features vaulted ceilings, 2 Full baths, Master bedroom suite, All spacious rooms, Wood burning stove, New cesspool, 2 Car attached garage w/rv side space. All appliances STAY! Inground sprinklers. Seated fenced.65 acre, Fenced property, Skylights, Retractable Awnings.Close to all, Schools, Shopping, Splish splash, Beaches, and Wine Country., Additional information: Appearance:Ex,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

19. 2026-03-16
    listed $699,990 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Sprawling Manors 3 Bedroom, Features vaulted ceilings, 2 Full baths, Master bedroom suite, All spacious rooms, Wood burning stove, New cesspool, 2 Car attached garage w/rv side space. All appliances STAY! Inground sprinklers. Seated fenced.65 acre, Fenced property, Skylights, Retractable Awnings.Close to all, Schools, Shopping, Splish splash, Beaches, and Wine Country., Additional information: Appearance:Ex,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

20. 2024-03-22
    listed $574,990 Active
21. 1990-04-19
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,442 · $953/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,442 · $953/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,169
• − Property taxes: −$11,442
• − Insurance: −$3,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$17,745
• Taxable income: $9,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,207
• After-tax cash flow: $16,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+251.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $649,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $659,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $669,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $699,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-22 Listed $574,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,442 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.