14618 County Road 463 · Lindale, TX 75771

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 2016 0.50 ac lot $175/sqft · 16% below area Est $326k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home located in highly sought after Lindale ISD. Situated on a spacious half-acre lot, this home features an open-concept layout with granite countertops, custom knotty alder cabinetry, breakfast bar, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy a split floor plan with a large primary suite and walk-in closet. The separate but open dining area is perfect for entertaining. The outdoor space is a blank slate and just waiting on you to create your own oasis. Don’t miss this one!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-489 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lindale — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#52 in TX, #2,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Velma Penny El (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #199 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 541 students, 48% FRL); E J Moss Int (math 66% / reading 59%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 981 students, 45% FRL); Lindale H S (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A-, #60 of 1,632 statewide, top 4%, 1,265 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,672 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,399
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -15.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
357 Smith Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+1%)	22mo	$299,900	$188	70
1525 Shug Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-2%)	12mo	$294,990	$191	67
346 Smith Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-2%)	23mo	$309,900	$200	66
1533 Shug Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-2%)	15mo	$299,990	$194	65
15006 High Country Acres	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+6%)	6mo	$384,000	$229	54
14447 County Road 463	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (+15%)	21mo	$334,900	$185	48
15092 High Country Acres Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,791 (+14%)	9mo	$388,000	$217	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-75,677
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-105,888
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75771

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $204,248

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-299	-5% $-394	+0% $-489	+5% $-584	+10% $-679
Rent	-10% $-630	-5% $-560	+0% $-489	+5% $-418	+10% $-348
Rate	-1.0pp $-350	-0.5pp $-419	base $-489	+0.5pp $-560	+1.0pp $-633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Garden Ln Lindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,250	$1.40	45d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $287,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $287,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $287,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $287,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $287,000 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $295,000 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home located in highly sought after Lindale ISD. Situated on a spacious half-acre lot, this home features an open-concept layout with granite countertops, custom knotty alder cabinetry, breakfast bar, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy a split floor plan with a large primary suite and walk-in closet. The separate but open dining area is perfect for entertaining. The outdoor space is a blank slate and just waiting on you to create your own oasis. Don’t miss this one!

19. 2021-04-29
    soldstatus 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Come see all that this beautiful 3/2/2 in Lindale ISD has to offer. Sitting on a half acre lot this home boasts an open concept, granite countertops, customer knotty alder cabinets, a breakfast bar , stainless steel appliances, split floor plan with large master bedroom and walk in closet, separate but open dining area and so much more! This one won't last long!

20. 2021-03-11
    listed $245,500 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Come see all that this beautiful 3/2/2 in Lindale ISD has to offer. Sitting on a half acre lot this home boasts an open concept, granite countertops, customer knotty alder cabinets, a breakfast bar , stainless steel appliances, split floor plan with large master bedroom and walk in closet, separate but open dining area and so much more! This one won't last long!

21. 2016-04-20
    soldstatus
22. 2016-03-12
    listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,615
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827510
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,325
• Composite: 58.85/100
• National rank: #974
• State rank: #20 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lindale

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #2100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 21,238
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,238
• Household income: $93,462
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 166.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.40%
• Current HPI: 200.187
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $295,000 GTAR
• 2021-04-29 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-03-11 Listed $245,500 GTAR
• 2016-04-20 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2016-03-12 Listed $179,900 GTAR