503 Plum Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2016 6,782 sqft lot $142/sqft · 23% below area Est $293k · 23% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

If you’ve been looking for a home that just feels easy to live in, this is it. Located in Fountain View in Josephine, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open layout, large kitchen island, walk-in pantry, and split bedrooms for extra privacy in the primary suite. Tucked toward the back of the neighborhood, you’ll enjoy a quieter setting, fenced backyard, walking trail, and stocked fishing pond nearby. Plus — no MUD or PID fees and easy access to HWY 30.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Walking trail
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPLIT BEDROOMS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• WALKING TRAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association management: FOUNTAINVIEW HOA SOUTH
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $200 annually (includes management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage faces front
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Built in 2016; Residential property
• Construction: Preowned (built 2016)
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.1557 acres); Subdivision: Fountain View Ph 4; No known restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric system; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Eat-in kitchen; Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,241 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,308
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -23.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 Magnolia Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-4%)	2mo	$219,900	$144	79
406 Shady Bank Way	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+8%)	6mo	$319,235	$186	72
913 W Cook St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-4%)	7mo	$525,000	$344	65
406 Gooseberry Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+4%)	8mo	$278,490	$168	64
305 Pine Hollow Way	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	6mo	$249,900	$159	59
104 Milton St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,604 (+1%)	7mo	$247,500	$154	58
505 Jasmine Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+14%)	4mo	$275,000	$152	58
506 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+14%)	1mo	$290,990	$162	57
407 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+14%)	2mo	$273,990	$152	55
409 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-12%)	3mo	$270,990	$193	53
800 Rustic Way	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+13%)	3mo	$275,000	$153	46
806 Independence	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-10%)	9mo	$245,000	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $116,919
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $349,068
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,956/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $209,068

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	0.16mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	0.41mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	0.41mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	43d	1	0.44mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	24d	1	0.53mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	43d	1	0.73mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	0.76mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	0.78mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	0.81mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	0.83mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	0.86mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	5d	1	0.87mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	0.88mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.93mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	12d	1	0.97mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	43d	1	1.00mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	1.04mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	24d	1	1.17mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	43d	1	1.17mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	2d	1	1.18mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	12d	1	1.22mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	43d	1	1.26mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	1.28mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	43d	1	1.29mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	43d	1	1.29mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	7d	1	1.32mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $225,000 Active 480-char remark
2. 2026-04-16
   status Active
3. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Option Contract
4. 2026-03-14
   listed $230,000 Active
5. 2026-02-16
   price $247,000
6. 2026-01-05
   price $249,900
7. 2025-09-04
   listed $269,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,956 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,956 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,956
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $81/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $247,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $269,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,956 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.