206 Dillon St · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,017 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1996 7,932 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath house with ceramic tile flooring throughout. This single family home features 1,017 sqft, a newer roof, fenced in back yard, covered patio, and sits on a corner lot. Very well maintained inside!!

Key facts

• 7,932 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-3; Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Total rooms: 7; Unfurnished; Living area approximately 1,017 (public records); total building area approximately 1,355; Direction faces north
• Financial info: Homestead exemption present; No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.18-acre lot
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Chain link and vinyl fencing; Paved, public-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed; Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($383/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary School (math 48% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 709 students, 53% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 878 students, 70% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $215k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,975 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,791
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-30,805
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,600/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,709

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $93	+0% $32	+5% $-29	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-37	+0% $32	+5% $101	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $87	base $32	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Vaniman Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1089	$1,610	$1.48	25d	1	0.04mi
506 Holt Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,675	$1.62	5d	1	0.14mi
122 4th Jpv St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	21d	1	0.25mi
604 Patrick Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	5d	1	0.27mi
502 Glad Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,815	$1.35	15d	1	0.29mi
Deena Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	840	$1,225	$1.46	25d	1	0.58mi
611 34th St NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	25d	1	0.72mi
5004 Dream Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,899	$2.21	4d	71	0.75mi
5004 Dream Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,899	$2.21	16d	76	0.75mi
265 25th St SW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	25d	1	0.77mi
1532 Wallace Manor Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,799	$1.38	23d	1	0.82mi
2414 Avenue A Ter NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	16d	1	0.87mi
2416 Avenue B SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,000	$1.46	25d	1	0.91mi
729 Crestwood Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	25d	1	0.94mi
350 24th St NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	660	$1,549	$2.35	5d	13	1.00mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	25d	1	1.01mi
3823 Avenue J NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,696	$1.62	5d	1	1.01mi
2214 Avenue B SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,775	$1.33	25d	1	1.03mi
3135 Woodhill Rd Unit 3205 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	25d	1	1.04mi
3135 Woodhill Rd Unit 3127 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	25d	1	1.04mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	25d	1	1.07mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	5d	1	1.10mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	25d	1	1.10mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	16d	1	1.14mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	5d	1	1.15mi
333 Lake Howard Dr NW Unit 312C Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,425	$1.38	25d	1	1.15mi
1254 34th St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,690	$1.53	5d	1	1.20mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	5d	1	1.20mi
521 20th St SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	732	$1,175	$1.61	5d	1	1.24mi
2016 Avenue G NW Unit 2016 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,125	$1.35	16d	1	1.31mi
1335 34th St NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,706	$1.42	5d	1	1.33mi
1935 Avenue O SW Unit 201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,400	$1.38	21d	1	1.46mi
2014 S Lake Cannon Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,350	$1.67	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $215,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $217,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $217,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $217,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $217,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   listed $217,000 Active
8. 2017-07-06
   soldstatus $99,000 Sold 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath house with ceramic tile flooring throughout. This single family home features 1,017 sqft, a newer roof, fenced in back yard, covered patio, and sits on a corner lot. Very well maintained inside!!

9. 2017-05-31
   status Pending 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath house with ceramic tile flooring throughout. This single family home features 1,017 sqft, a newer roof, fenced in back yard, covered patio, and sits on a corner lot. Very well maintained inside!!

10. 2017-05-26
    listed $99,000 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath house with ceramic tile flooring throughout. This single family home features 1,017 sqft, a newer roof, fenced in back yard, covered patio, and sits on a corner lot. Very well maintained inside!!

11. 2002-03-12
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 11.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,600
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$800
• After-tax cash flow: $1,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jan Phyl Village, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+212.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $217,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-06 Sold (MLS) $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-26 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,600 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.