353 Constitution Dr · Forked River, NJ 08731

$599,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1961 0.26 ac lot $234/sqft · at area comps Est $596k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR AVAILABILITY/SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X 800! PQ FROM CENDANT MTG. REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL 1-800-741-6530 FOR FAST APPROVAL FOR REQUIRED SPECIAL CONTRACTS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X300!

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Stone fireplace
• Eight burner stove

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• STONE FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM MANTLE
• EIGHT BURNER STOVE
• CUSTOM SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Ceramic tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $600k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $430k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $599,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.40%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,591
• List price: $599,900
• Delta: 4.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
424 Continental St	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,600 (+2%)	1mo	$760,000	$292	72
26 Jacqueline Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,594 (+1%)	4mo	$715,000	$276	68
19 Sunrise Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,582 (+1%)	9mo	$470,000	$182	66
3 Easy St	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,608 (+2%)	3mo	$725,000	$278	66
308 Pine Forest Ln	0.48mi	4/4.0	2,654 (+4%)	3mo	$675,000	$254	65
1 Hilltop Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,561 (-0%)	11mo	$615,000	$240	55
15 Jacqueline Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,224 (-13%)	8mo	$630,000	$283	45
507 Laurelwood Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,226 (-13%)	6mo	$515,000	$231	44
107 Fernwood Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,200 (-14%)	6mo	$710,000	$323	40
421 Carr St	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,240 (-13%)	7mo	$430,000	$192	36
551 Rosewood Dr	0.70mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,233 (-13%)	6mo	$610,000	$273	32
551 Rosewood Dr Unit 551 R	0.70mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,233 (-13%)	6mo	$610,000	$273	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $58,002
• Equity at exit: $89,447

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $250,572
• Equity at exit: $51,868

Cash invested: $167,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$668 /mo · $8,022/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,728
• Net cashflow: $2,436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,145

Max offer price $599,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,775	-5% $2,606	+0% $2,436	+5% $2,266	+10% $2,096
Rent	-10% $1,786	-5% $2,111	+0% $2,436	+5% $2,761	+10% $3,086
Rate	-1.0pp $2,738	-0.5pp $2,588	base $2,436	+0.5pp $2,280	+1.0pp $2,122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,975
• Closing costs: $17,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Frog Hollow Rd Forked River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1900	$1,975	$1.04	2d	1	1.10mi
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	2d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $599,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1758-char remark
7. 2026-04-21
   listed $624,900 Active 1758-char remark
8. 2025-07-30
   soldstatus $430,000
9. 2003-10-01
   soldstatus $135,000
10. 1999-12-17
    soldstatus $128,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    FOR AVAILABILITY/SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X 800! PQ FROM CENDANT MTG. REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL 1-800-741-6530 FOR FAST APPROVAL FOR REQUIRED SPECIAL CONTRACTS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X300!

11. 1999-12-17
    soldstatus $128,900

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    FOR AVAILABILITY/SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X 800! PQ FROM CENDANT MTG. REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL 1-800-741-6530 FOR FAST APPROVAL FOR REQUIRED SPECIAL CONTRACTS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X300!

12. 1999-12-07
    historical
13. 1999-12-07
    historical
14. 1999-11-17
    listed $136,500 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    FOR AVAILABILITY/SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X 800! PQ FROM CENDANT MTG. REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL 1-800-741-6530 FOR FAST APPROVAL FOR REQUIRED SPECIAL CONTRACTS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X300!

15. 1999-11-17
    listed $128,900

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    FOR AVAILABILITY/SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X 800! PQ FROM CENDANT MTG. REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL 1-800-741-6530 FOR FAST APPROVAL FOR REQUIRED SPECIAL CONTRACTS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X300!

16. 1999-11-17
    listed $136,500

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    FOR AVAILABILITY/SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X 800! PQ FROM CENDANT MTG. REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL 1-800-741-6530 FOR FAST APPROVAL FOR REQUIRED SPECIAL CONTRACTS PLEASE CALL 732-473-1700 X300!

17. 1992-08-14
    soldstatus $139,900
18. 1989-06-29
    soldstatus $147,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,022 · $668/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,480 · $957/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,458/yr (+$288/mo · 43.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,604
• − Property taxes: −$8,022
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,899
• − Management: −$7,899
• − Depreciation: −$17,452
• Taxable income: $20,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,007
• After-tax cash flow: $24,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+308.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $599,900 MOMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $624,900 MOMLS
• 2025-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $430,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-17 Sold (MLS) $128,900 MOMLS
• 1999-12-17 Sold (MLS) $128,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-12-07 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1999-12-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-11-17 Listed $136,500 MOMLS
• 1999-11-17 Listed $128,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-11-17 Listed $136,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 1989-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,022 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.