135 Hillview Dr Unit 109 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$101,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,117 sqft · Condo public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1975 $361/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your escape at the Lakewood Hills Condo. Newer heat and air unit. New appliances include washer, dryer, and range with air fryer. A perfect retreat for relaxation or an ideal spot for a lucrative VRBO investment. As an exclusive Lakewood Hills owner, you'll also have access to a serene private pool amidst the natural beauty of the Bay. Nestled right in the heart of Fairfield Bay, this condo provides the convenience of walking to a multitude of amenities. Explore the Bay's enchanting surroundings, where Greers Ferry Lake, a mere 10 minutes away, beckons with its pristine waters and a full-service marina for all your water adventures. For golfers paradise awaits, with not one but two 18-hole golf courses just a 5-minute drive away. Take advantage of the extensive walking trails, utv/atv trails, tennis courts, miniature golf, and even bowling. Stay active at the workout facility. . You'll also find a charming local shopping area to explore at your leisure. For more information about Fairfield Bay Dues and Condo Fees, please refer to the Agent remarks. More pictures coming soon.

Key facts

• $361 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $101k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $101k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $217 of equity ($698 loan paydown + $-481 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $94,940 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.03%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,808
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,033 (-8%)	18mo	$25,000	$24	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $34,065
• Equity at exit: $26,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $91,532
• Equity at exit: $30,543

Cash invested: $28,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$530
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $407/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$361
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $101,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $642	+0% $613	+5% $585	+10% $556
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $534	+0% $613	+5% $692	+10% $771
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $639	base $613	+0.5pp $587	+1.0pp $561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,250
• Closing costs: $3,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	46d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $361 · $4,332/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-04-11
   price $101,000 1102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1102 chars)

   Welcome to your escape at the Lakewood Hills Condo. Newer heat and air unit. New appliances include washer, dryer, and range with air fryer. A perfect retreat for relaxation or an ideal spot for a lucrative VRBO investment. As an exclusive Lakewood Hills owner, you'll also have access to a serene private pool amidst the natural beauty of the Bay. Nestled right in the heart of Fairfield Bay, this condo provides the convenience of walking to a multitude of amenities. Explore the Bay's enchanting surroundings, where Greers Ferry Lake, a mere 10 minutes away, beckons with its pristine waters and a full-service marina for all your water adventures. For golfers paradise awaits, with not one but two 18-hole golf courses just a 5-minute drive away. Take advantage of the extensive walking trails, utv/atv trails, tennis courts, miniature golf, and even bowling. Stay active at the workout facility. . You'll also find a charming local shopping area to explore at your leisure. For more information about Fairfield Bay Dues and Condo Fees, please refer to the Agent remarks. More pictures coming soon.

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $108,000 New Listing 1102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1102 chars)

   Welcome to your escape at the Lakewood Hills Condo. Newer heat and air unit. New appliances include washer, dryer, and range with air fryer. A perfect retreat for relaxation or an ideal spot for a lucrative VRBO investment. As an exclusive Lakewood Hills owner, you'll also have access to a serene private pool amidst the natural beauty of the Bay. Nestled right in the heart of Fairfield Bay, this condo provides the convenience of walking to a multitude of amenities. Explore the Bay's enchanting surroundings, where Greers Ferry Lake, a mere 10 minutes away, beckons with its pristine waters and a full-service marina for all your water adventures. For golfers paradise awaits, with not one but two 18-hole golf courses just a 5-minute drive away. Take advantage of the extensive walking trails, utv/atv trails, tennis courts, miniature golf, and even bowling. Stay active at the workout facility. . You'll also find a charming local shopping area to explore at your leisure. For more information about Fairfield Bay Dues and Condo Fees, please refer to the Agent remarks. More pictures coming soon.

3. 2025-10-25
   historical
4. 2025-04-26
   listed $111,500 New Listing
5. 2025-04-05
   historical
6. 2025-03-26
   price $95,500
7. 2025-03-11
   price $99,950
8. 2024-10-10
   listed $115,000 New Listing
9. 2024-04-13
   historical
10. 2024-03-28
    listed $126,000 New Listing
11. 2023-12-22
    soldstatus $103,000
12. 2023-12-19
    status Under Contract
13. 2023-12-18
    soldstatus $103,000 Sold
14. 2023-12-10
    historical Take Backups
15. 2023-10-07
    price $105,000
16. 2023-09-08
    listed $110,000 New Listing
17. 2023-07-10
    soldstatus $185,000
18. 2021-07-12
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $29,900
20. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $79,000
21. 2021-06-12
    historical
22. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus $79,000 Sold
23. 2021-05-19
    historical Take Backups
24. 2021-05-14
    listed $77,900 New Listing
25. 2019-11-04
    historical
26. 2019-08-13
    listed $42,500 New Listing
27. 2019-07-08
    soldstatus $32,000
28. 1996-03-28
    soldstatus $28,000
29. 1996-03-27
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $407 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,658
• − Property taxes: −$407
• − Insurance: −$505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$4,332
• − Depreciation: −$2,938
• Taxable income: $6,320
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,517
• After-tax cash flow: $5,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+304.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $101,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $108,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Listed $111,500 CARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $95,500 CARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $99,950 CARMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed $115,000 CARMLS
• 2024-04-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Listed $126,000 CARMLS
• 2023-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-19 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Sold (MLS) $103,000 CARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2023-10-07 Price Changed $105,000 CARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $110,000 CARMLS
• 2023-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-12 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-06-10 Sold (MLS) $79,000 CARMLS
• 2021-05-19 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2021-05-14 Listed $77,900 CARMLS
• 2019-11-04 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2019-08-13 Listed $42,500 CARMLS
• 2019-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $407 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.