2023 37th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$72,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 847 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1951 7,260 sqft lot $86/sqft · 45% below area Est $132k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2/1 with fenced back yard. Great Investor property.

Key facts

• 7,260 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 253 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($880 rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.56%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,045
• List price: $72,500
• Delta: -45.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $433
• Equity at exit: $10,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $18,369
• Equity at exit: $6,268

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $654

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $199	+0% $179	+5% $158	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $144	+0% $179	+5% $213	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $197	base $179	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	44d	1	0.03mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	44d	1	0.15mi
2011 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$800	$0.99	44d	1	0.17mi
2208 35th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	767	$750	$0.98	44d	1	0.23mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	22d	1	0.27mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	14d	1	0.28mi
2302 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$749	$0.94	22d	1	0.28mi
2118 33rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	676	$550	$0.81	22d	1	0.31mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.35mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	22d	1	0.38mi
2308 33rd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	696	$850	$1.22	44d	1	0.40mi
2315 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	22d	1	0.44mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	22d	1	0.44mi
2420 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	22d	1	0.52mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	22d	1	0.52mi
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	14d	1	0.55mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	22d	1	0.56mi
1718 46th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$695	$1.06	44d	1	0.58mi
2120 47th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$795	$1.00	22d	1	0.58mi
2419 31st St Apt B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	878	$795	$0.91	14d	1	0.59mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,010	$1.00	14d	23	0.59mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	14d	1	0.62mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	14d	3	0.62mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	22d	1	0.62mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	22d	1	0.62mi
2409 45th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	44d	1	0.63mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	22d	1	0.64mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	44d	1	0.64mi
1610 45th St Unit 14 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$895	$1.63	44d	1	0.64mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	44d	1	0.64mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	22d	1	0.65mi
1604 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$650	$0.93	44d	1	0.65mi
2420 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	22d	1	0.66mi
1717 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	830	$775	$0.93	22d	1	0.66mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	14d	1	0.66mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	44d	1	0.66mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	695	$750	$1.08	44d	1	0.68mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	14d	1	0.68mi
2007 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,250	$1.20	44d	1	0.69mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	22d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $72,500 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   Cute 2/1 with fenced back yard. Great Investor property.

2. 2025-11-13
   price $77,500 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   Cute 2/1 with fenced back yard. Great Investor property.

3. 2025-10-15
   status Active 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   Cute 2/1 with fenced back yard. Great Investor property.

4. 2025-10-09
   status Pending 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   Cute 2/1 with fenced back yard. Great Investor property.

5. 2025-08-29
   listed $79,000 Active 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   Cute 2/1 with fenced back yard. Great Investor property.

6. 2023-04-10
   soldstatus
7. 2017-08-01
   soldstatus
8. 2017-07-27
   soldstatus 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Affordable home for first time owners, or great for the investors. Completely remodeled inside and outside. New energy efficiency windows and doors, new paint inside, blinds, carpet, interior doors, and kitchen flooring. New HVAC installed less than one year ago. Make an offer.

9. 2017-07-04
   listed $47,000 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   Affordable home for first time owners, or great for the investors. Completely remodeled inside and outside. New energy efficiency windows and doors, new paint inside, blinds, carpet, interior doors, and kitchen flooring. New HVAC installed less than one year ago. Make an offer.

10. 1993-08-01
    soldstatus
11. 1990-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$845
• − Management: −$845
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable income: $1,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$255
• After-tax cash flow: $1,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+54.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $72,500 LARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $77,500 LARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $79,000 LARMLS
• 2023-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-27 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-07-04 Listed $47,000 LARMLS
• 1993-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,274 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.