Ashton II Plan · Crandall, TX 75114

$277,499

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily · 859 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home offers a great layout with a total of four bedrooms. The main living area showcases an open layout among the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, while a flex room offers a variety of uses. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home.

Key facts

• <owner's suite>
• <single-story home>
• <open layout>

Tags

• <SINGLE-STORY HOME>
• <OPEN LAYOUT>
• <OWNER'S SUITE>
• <ROOMY WALK-IN CLOSET>

🏗️ New construction. The $277,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,043.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($88/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nola Kathryn Wilson El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 596 students, 59% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 859 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 859 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,043
• List price: $277,499
• Delta: -1.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3407 Longfellow Trl	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-5%)	0mo	$261,999	$149	74
3403 Longfellow Trl	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-7%)	1mo	$256,999	$149	71
3103 Kleinbrook Way	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-5%)	6mo	$271,174	$154	70
2307 Albert Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,088 (+13%)	5mo	$315,490	$151	68
1318 Olivewood Pl	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,931 (+4%)	4mo	$279,990	$145	67
3165 Maplehurst Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-5%)	4mo	$260,999	$148	67
3175 Maplehurst Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-5%)	3mo	$251,499	$143	66
3134 Maplehurst Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-7%)	5mo	$234,499	$136	66
3141 Maplehurst Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-7%)	6mo	$243,499	$142	64
Highway 175	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-10%)	3mo	$269,990	$162	53
1427 Canongate Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-13%)	6mo	$256,490	$160	52
1256 Barkridge St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-13%)	6mo	$256,490	$160	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,200
• Equity at exit: $42,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-38,607
• Equity at exit: $24,386

Cash invested: $78,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,990 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$353 /mo · $4,231/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,467

Max offer price $282,043

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $105	+0% $7	+5% $-90	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-91	+0% $7	+5% $105	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $79	base $7	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,511
• Closing costs: $8,461
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2307 Albert Ln Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,500	$1.20	120d	1	0.04mi
2551 Quiet Oak Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1870	$2,200	$1.18	26d	1	0.24mi
1302 Olivewood Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,050	$1.52	20d	1	0.29mi
1322 Olivewood Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,100	$1.44	102d	1	0.31mi
1322 Olivewood Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,100	$1.44	94d	1	0.31mi
505 S 5th St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	87d	1	1.23mi
307 E Trunk St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$2,000	$1.28	44d	1	1.39mi
107 Haymeadow Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$2,100	$1.20	67d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-31
   days on market $277,499 Active 859 DOM
2. 2026-08-30
   days on market $277,499 Active 858 DOM
3. 2026-08-29
   days on market $277,499 Active 857 DOM
4. 2026-08-28
   days on market $277,499 Active 856 DOM
5. 2026-08-27
   days on market $277,499 Active 855 DOM
6. 2026-08-25
   days on market $277,499 Active 853 DOM
7. 2026-08-24
   days on market $277,499 Active 852 DOM
8. 2026-08-23
   days on market $277,499 Active 851 DOM
9. 2026-08-22
   days on market $277,499 Active 850 DOM
10. 2026-08-21
    days on market $277,499 Active 849 DOM
11. 2026-08-20
    days on market $277,499 Active 848 DOM
12. 2026-08-19
    days on market $277,499 Active 847 DOM
13. 2026-08-18
    days on market $277,499 Active 846 DOM
14. 2026-08-17
    days on market $277,499 Active 845 DOM
15. 2026-08-16
    days on market $277,499 Active 844 DOM
16. 2026-08-15
    days on market $277,499 Active 843 DOM
17. 2026-08-14
    days on market $277,499 Active 842 DOM
18. 2026-08-13
    days on market $277,499 Active 841 DOM
19. 2026-08-12
    days on market $277,499 Active 840 DOM
20. 2026-08-11
    days on market $277,499 Active 839 DOM
21. 2026-08-10
    days on market $277,499 Active 838 DOM
22. 2026-08-09
    days on market $277,499 Active 837 DOM
23. 2026-08-08
    days on market $277,499 Active 836 DOM
24. 2026-08-06
    days on market $277,499 Active 834 DOM
25. 2026-08-05
    days on market $277,499 Active 833 DOM
26. 2026-08-04
    days on market $277,499 Active 832 DOM
27. 2026-08-03
    days on market $277,499 Active 831 DOM
28. 2026-07-31
    days on market $277,499 Active 828 DOM
29. 2026-07-30
    days on market $277,499 Active 827 DOM
30. 2026-07-30
    days on market $277,499 Active 826 DOM
31. 2026-07-28
    days on market $277,499 Active 825 DOM
32. 2026-07-26
    days on market $277,499 Active 823 DOM
33. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,499 Active 821 DOM
34. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,499 Active 820 DOM
35. 2026-07-22
    days on market $277,499 Active 819 DOM
36. 2026-07-21
    days on market $277,499 Active 818 DOM
37. 2026-07-20
    days on market $277,499 Active 817 DOM
38. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,499 Active 815 DOM
39. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,499 Active 814 DOM
40. 2026-07-16
    days on market $277,499 Active 813 DOM
41. 2026-07-15
    days on market $277,499 Active 812 DOM
42. 2026-07-14
    days on market $277,499 Active 811 DOM
43. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,499 Active 810 DOM
44. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,499 Active 809 DOM
45. 2026-07-11
    days on market $277,499 Active 808 DOM
46. 2026-07-10
    days on market $277,499 Active 807 DOM
47. 2026-07-09
    days on market $277,499 Active 806 DOM
48. 2026-07-07
    days on market $277,499 Active 804 DOM
49. 2026-07-06
    days on market $277,499 Active 803 DOM
50. 2026-07-06
    days on market $277,499 Active 802 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,231
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,377
• − Management: −$2,377
• − Depreciation: −$8,205
• Taxable loss: −$4,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Ashton II Plan home in Crandall, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nola Kathryn Wilson El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crandall, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-28 Price Changed $277,499 Zillow
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $274,499 Zillow
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $269,499 Zillow
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $268,499 Zillow
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $264,499 Zillow
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $263,499 Zillow
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $262,499 Zillow
• 2024-06-16 Price Changed $264,499 Zillow
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $264,999 Zillow
• 2024-04-24 Listed $277,999 Zillow