8 E Gray St · Newburgh, IN 47630

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1900 3,920 sqft lot $103/sqft · 37% below area Est $180k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Capitalize on this investment opportunity just steps from the Historic Downtown Newburgh, the Rivertown Walking Trail, and the Ohio River. Currently a 2-bed 1.5-bath with a walk-out basement, this home will make a wonderful rental, AirBNB, or flip opportunity either for investment or primary residence! Home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Walk-out basement
• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN NEWBURGH
• RIVERTOWN WALKING TRAIL
• WALK-OUT BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.80%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,619
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -44.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Monroe St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,002 (+3%)	2mo	$199,000	$199	86
405 Filmore St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+4%)	1mo	$194,900	$193	83
405 Middle St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,065 (+9%)	4mo	$177,500	$167	76
329 Middle St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (+5%)	20mo	$165,000	$161	66
113 N Fourth St	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,012 (+4%)	8mo	$172,500	$170	65
414 Locust St	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (+4%)	23mo	$172,500	$170	57
8 Yorkshire Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+3%)	18mo	$214,400	$214	50
419 Section St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+11%)	20mo	$140,000	$130	48
725 Outer Gray St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (+10%)	18mo	$110,000	$103	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $7,061
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $56,632
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $853

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
624 Village Ln Newburgh, IN	2.0	1.0	828	$900	$1.09	43d	1	0.62mi
5700 Kenwood Cir Newburgh, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	858	$910	$1.06	13d	2	0.70mi
7300 Brentwood Dr Newburgh, IN	2.0	1.0	890	$865	$0.97	13d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    listed $99,900 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Capitalize on this investment opportunity just steps from the Historic Downtown Newburgh, the Rivertown Walking Trail, and the Ohio River. Currently a 2-bed 1.5-bath with a walk-out basement, this home will make a wonderful rental, AirBNB, or flip opportunity either for investment or primary residence! Home is being sold as-is.

16. 2025-10-07
    soldstatus $72,500 Closed 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 2 beds 1.5 bathroom home just seconds from downtown Newburgh. Home needs extensive work

17. 2025-09-19
    status Pending 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 2 beds 1.5 bathroom home just seconds from downtown Newburgh. Home needs extensive work

18. 2025-09-19
    listed $72,500 Active 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 2 beds 1.5 bathroom home just seconds from downtown Newburgh. Home needs extensive work

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $742 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$1,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,692
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$406
• After-tax cash flow: $2,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, IN
• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+37.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $99,900 IRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Sold (MLS) $72,500 IRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Pending — IRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $72,500 IRMLS

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $634 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.