2621 Prescott Rd #261 · Modesto, CA 95350

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition Est $120k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2621 Prescott Rd, Space 261-a beautifully updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home offering comfort, style, and easy living. This move-in-ready home features a bright open-concept layout with new carpet, new vinyl flooring, and dual-pane windows that bring in plenty of natural light. The heart of the home is its beautiful kitchen, complete with a gas cooktop, gorgeous cabinetry, and plenty of space for cooking, storage and entertaining. The open design flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Step outside to enjoy the nicely landscaped yard and covered patio-perfect for relaxing or hosting guests. Located in the desirable 55+ co

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• New carpet
• Dual pane windows

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NEW CARPET
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• GAS COOKTOP
• GORGEOUS CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: $945 (land lease present indicated as amount)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Gas plumbed to the home; Cable available; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Updated / remodeled; Townhouse make (mobile home classification); Built in 1973
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Patio awning and carport awning; Covered patio; Backyard landscaping; Storage and shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator; Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ceramic countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks, tub with shower over, and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Carpeted porch steps with railings and a covered patio; Dual-pane full windows; Storage area / shed(s) on the property; Dining and living areas combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in an inside laundry room; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $946 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Stanislaus Union Elementary (urban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #344 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.94%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2621 Prescott Road Space 224 #224	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$122,300	$85	92
2621 Prescott Rd #127	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$84,000	$58	90
2621 Prescott Rd Unit 249a	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$100,000	$69	89
2621 Prescott Rd #262	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$69,000	$51	87
2621 Prescott Rd #151	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	2mo	$125,000	$83	84
2621 Prescott Rd #106	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$71,500	$53	83
2621 Prescott Rd #53	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (+6%)	4mo	$105,000	$69	78
2621 Prescott Rd #87	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	5mo	$130,000	$86	78
2129 Viking Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$205,000	$153	75
2621 Prescott Rd #17	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+9%)	2mo	$118,000	$75	75
2113 Barrington Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	1mo	$300,000	$185	59
2124 Key West Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	1mo	$337,000	$208	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $42,674
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $108,597
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95350

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,014	-5% $980	+0% $946	+5% $911	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $864	+0% $946	+5% $1,027	+10% $1,109
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $971	base $946	+0.5pp $920	+1.0pp $894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Palisade Ave #4 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,850	$2.00	14d	1	0.28mi
2112 Eicher Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	14d	1	0.38mi
1808 W Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	14d	1	0.45mi
2531 W Rumble Rd Unit 16 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	891	$1,795	$2.01	14d	1	0.48mi
2531 W Rumble Rd Unit 13 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	887	$1,825	$2.06	14d	1	0.48mi
1712 Applegate Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,595	$2.32	14d	1	0.53mi
2404 Strivens Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,498	$2.08	14d	1	0.67mi
3500 Shawnee Dr Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	14d	1	0.70mi
3601 Prescott Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$2,075	$2.60	12d	1	0.71mi
2821 Lou Ann Dr Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	1035	$2,150	$2.08	12d	3	0.73mi
1809 La Corunna Pl Modesto, CA	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	14d	1	0.75mi
3200 Hahn Dr Modesto, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1262	$2,317	$1.84	4d	5	0.76mi
2020 Cheyenne Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,825	$2.33	4d	2	0.78mi
2213 Camborne Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1220	$2,395	$1.96	24d	1	0.78mi
1713 Randazzo Ave Unit 1713 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	14d	1	0.81mi
2900 W Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	936	$1,795	$1.92	11d	1	0.83mi
2800 Braden Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,960	$2.52	3d	9	0.85mi
3904 Breda Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,400	$1.43	22d	1	1.07mi
3600 Dale Rd Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	935	$2,100	$2.25	4d	1	1.12mi
3600 Dale Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	935	$2,100	$2.25	12d	1	1.12mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	14d	2	1.19mi
1701 Linwood Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,050	$1.37	14d	1	1.21mi
2704 Snyder Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1806	$2,495	$1.38	12d	1	1.23mi
3820 Gareth Ln Apt C Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	14d	1	1.31mi
3620 Historic Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,800	$1.78	12d	1	1.38mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	14d	10	1.38mi
3905 Dale Rd Unit B Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,750	$1.72	4d	1	1.43mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	14d	1	1.48mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,494
• After-tax cash flow: $8,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready mobile home features a bright open-concept layout with new carpet, vinyl flooring, and dual-pane windows. The kitchen and bathrooms are updated with new cabinetry and marble countertops. The covered patio and landscaped yard provide a relaxing outdoor space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanislaus Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637950
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,731
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #7286
• State rank: #344 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,136
• Household income: $75,621
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2163.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.05%
• Current HPI: 307.9532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B