6222 Sewan Ave · Carmichael, CA 95841

$93,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Built 1974 $65/sqft · 41% below area Est $157k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1974
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $937 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 2.6% in Carmichael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#471 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A-, housing B+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $643 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,420 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.24%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,000
• List price: $93,000
• Delta: -40.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6206 Plymouth Rock Ln #110	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	1mo	$159,000	$104	75
6222 Redcliff Dr #47	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$54,900	$41	73
6116 Mame Ct	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$179,000	$124	70
6641 Grosse Point Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	3mo	$175,000	$120	66
6116 Mame Ct #905	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$100,000	$69	66
6223 Lurline Ave	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$75,000	$60	66
6637 Grosse Point Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	1mo	$95,000	$62	55
6113 Summerset Ln	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$169,000	$126	54
6621 Grosse Point Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$130,000	$104	50
6105 Meiggs Ct #1015	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,645 (+14%)	4mo	$160,000	$97	44
6105 Mame Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	3mo	$85,000	$68	43
6625 Shamus Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$190,000	$152	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $38,577
• Equity at exit: $13,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $87,134
• Equity at exit: $8,041

Cash invested: $26,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95841

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $93,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,250
• Closing costs: $2,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5979 Devecchi Ave Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,871	$2.41	1d	15	0.24mi
6011 Shadow Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,348	$3.01	1d	15	0.37mi
6104 Rockport Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.5	1150	$2,295	$2.00	21d	1	0.42mi
6219 Oak Valley Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	3.0	1304	$2,295	$1.76	17d	1	0.45mi
6219 Oak Valley Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,295	$1.76	43d	1	0.45mi
5922 Petaluma Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$2,075	$1.98	1d	1	0.54mi
6203 Ackland Ct Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.5	1322	$2,500	$1.89	23d	1	0.56mi
5718 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	43d	1	0.59mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5853-D Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,525	$1.67	16d	1	0.60mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5877-B Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,575	$1.72	16d	1	0.60mi
5417 Olympic Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,795	$1.95	14d	1	0.65mi
5587 Keoncrest Cir Unit 2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,000	$2.22	1d	1	0.69mi
5233 Calistoga Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,495	$2.08	1d	1	0.81mi
6025 Dewey Dr Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1847	$2,500	$1.35	23d	1	0.97mi
6558 Meadowcreek Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,500	$1.92	43d	1	0.99mi
6687 Greenback Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1323	$2,495	$1.89	17d	1	1.04mi
6225 Wildomar Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	1.0	1040	$3,000	$2.88	43d	1	1.10mi
6319 Misty Wood Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,500	$1.72	43d	1	1.10mi
6841 Concert Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	1d	1	1.12mi
6004 Rutland Dr Unit 128 Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	3d	1	1.13mi
6600 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1686	$2,600	$1.54	16d	1	1.14mi
5308 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	43d	1	1.18mi
6200 Osullivan Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1316	$1,775	$1.35	7d	1	1.19mi
5425 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,650	$2.10	20d	5	1.19mi
5300 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	23d	1	1.21mi
5322 Hemlock St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	1d	2	1.24mi
6940 Trailride Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,695	$1.76	43d	1	1.30mi
5233 Columbine Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,375	$2.36	3d	1	1.38mi
4758 Greenholme Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,595	$1.73	43d	1	1.45mi
7024 San Altos Cir Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,800	$2.50	43d	1	1.47mi
5100 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	917	$1,970	$2.15	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $93,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,000 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,209
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$1,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,705
• Taxable income: $10,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,504
• After-tax cash flow: $8,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carmichael

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #15996

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmichael, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 61,440
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,500
• Household income: $61,054
• Rent vs Own: 65.3% rent · 34.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.82%
• Current HPI: 369.8991
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B