406 Denver St · Pawnee, OK 74058

$119,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1910 0.32 ac lot Est $140k · 15% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Well preserved 2 story historic home located in Pawnee Oklahoma. Home boasts turn of the century charm with modern updates. Now asphalt roof. Attractive wood flooring throughout most of home. Large great room upon front door entry sprawling into formal dining area. One could choose primary bedroom upstairs or down. There is a large living space that could actually serve as another bedroom or large office space. Great covered porch areas for outdoor relaxing any time of your day. Moderate sized kitchen would be great for family meal prep and entertaining company. New back porch/deck recently constructed. Modern piering upgrades in basement. Close to downtown Pawnee and just a couple blocks

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Modern updates
• Asphalt roof

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• MODERN UPDATES
• ASPHALT ROOF
• WOOD FLOORING
• GREAT ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story; Faces south; Basement and crawlspace foundation; Handicap access
• Construction: Built with wood siding and wood frame; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Stove
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible entrance; Vinyl windows; Laminate counters; Electric oven/range connections
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#116 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pawnee (rural): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #176 of 270 in OK (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Pawnee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($826 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,330 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,220
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Cleveland St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-3%)	11mo	$149,500	$90	82
811 7th St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,732 (+1%)	4mo	$35,000	$20	73
310 Boulder St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,712 (+0%)	23mo	$162,000	$95	70
1101 5th St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,519 (-11%)	5mo	$122,000	$80	67
907 5th St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,456 (-15%)	2mo	$48,000	$33	66
607 Forest St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-3%)	22mo	$20,000	$12	66
406 Boulder St	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-14%)	6mo	$18,500	$13	60
314 Boulder St	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-15%)	14mo	$144,500	$99	54
1705 3rd St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+9%)	2mo	$192,000	$103	51
200 2nd St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,902 (+11%)	1mo	$259,500	$136	50
611 9th St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-7%)	24mo	$130,000	$82	46
615 11th St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,456 (-15%)	9mo	$62,500	$43	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $29,379
• Equity at exit: $53,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $83,479
• Equity at exit: $82,808

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74058

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $270	+0% $236	+5% $202	+10% $168
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $188	+0% $236	+5% $284	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $266	base $236	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,500 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,500 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,500 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,500 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-04-05
    listed $119,500 Active
17. 2026-04-04
    historical
18. 2026-01-09
    price $124,500
19. 2025-11-17
    price $134,900
20. 2025-11-04
    listed $139,900 Active
21. 2025-11-04
    historical
22. 2025-08-05
    price $139,500
23. 2025-07-23
    price $142,000
24. 2025-06-02
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $537 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$538/yr (+$45/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$218
• After-tax cash flow: $2,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pawnee
• NCES district ID: 4023610
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,841
• Composite: 16.5/100
• National rank: #9184
• State rank: #176 of 270 in OK

Livability — Pawnee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #11883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pawnee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 3,558

Population outlook (Pawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,219 people
• By 2030: 16,028 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 15,724 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 15,563 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 15,905 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 16,058 · -1.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Native American 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pawnee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 19.7% · R 78.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+57.5 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+40.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Listed $119,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-04 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $124,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $134,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-11-04 Listed $139,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $139,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $142,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-06-02 Listed $145,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $537 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.