101 Condie Russell Ave · Venus, TX 76084

$324,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Land · 107 Days on market

Built 2026 5,478 sqft lot $182/sqft · at area comps Est $321k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This incredible four-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers spacious living and thoughtful upgrades throughout. From the stunning brick exterior and professional front yard landscaping to the fully fenced backyard, this home has standout curb appeal and outdoor charm. Inside, the open layout features a large entertaining space and a beautifully upgraded kitchen complete with Whirlpool® appliances, designer wood cabinetry, granite countertops, flush mount LED lighting, and a convenient USB outlet. The private master suite boasts natural light, a walk-in closet, and an extended shower for added comfort. High-tech features include a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, programmable thermostat, and energy-efficient double-pane Low-E vinyl windows. Ideally located within walking distance from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splashpad, this home combines comfort, convenience, and access to family-friendly amenities.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Whirlpool appliances
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• FRONT YARD LANDSCAPING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN LAYOUT
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,528 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,732
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: 1.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $111,960
• Equity at exit: $231,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $326,476
• Equity at exit: $447,003

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $915/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $307,299

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $-8	+0% $-100	+5% $-192	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-192	+0% $-100	+5% $-7	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-17	base $-100	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	23d	1	0.03mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	0d	1	0.03mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	13d	1	0.11mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,535	$1.28	0d	1	0.17mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	0d	1	0.19mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	0d	1	0.24mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	2d	1	0.26mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	20d	1	0.35mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	12d	1	0.36mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	8d	1	0.36mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	3d	1	0.36mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	44d	1	0.38mi
315 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	0d	1	0.41mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	25d	1	0.42mi
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	44d	1	0.42mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	4d	1	0.43mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	0.59mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	44d	1	0.66mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	23d	1	0.66mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	25d	1	0.70mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	2d	1	0.75mi
645 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	44d	1	0.76mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	0.76mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	0d	1	0.80mi
656-660 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	0d	1	0.81mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	8d	1	0.83mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	44d	1	0.84mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	0d	1	0.85mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	8d	1	0.85mi
733 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	25d	1	0.86mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	44d	1	0.87mi
729 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,995	$1.53	44d	1	0.89mi
748 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	44d	1	0.89mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	44d	1	0.91mi
704 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,850	$1.36	45d	1	0.95mi
712 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	25d	1	0.96mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	16d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: internetlandscapingpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-03-06
    listed $324,900 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    This incredible four-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers spacious living and thoughtful upgrades throughout. From the stunning brick exterior and professional front yard landscaping to the fully fenced backyard, this home has standout curb appeal and outdoor charm. Inside, the open layout features a large entertaining space and a beautifully upgraded kitchen complete with Whirlpool® appliances, designer wood cabinetry, granite countertops, flush mount LED lighting, and a convenient USB outlet. The private master suite boasts natural light, a walk-in closet, and an extended shower for added comfort. High-tech features include a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, programmable thermostat, and energy-efficient double-pane Low-E vinyl windows. Ideally located within walking distance from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splashpad, this home combines comfort, convenience, and access to family-friendly amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,946 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,031/yr (+$419/mo · 550.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$915
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$6,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,679
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $324,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $915 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.