1309 S Canyon Ave · Lamesa, TX 79331

$35,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 412 Days on market

Built 1950 5,488 sqft lot $35/sqft · 32% below area Est $53k · 32% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS! Calling all investors! Take a peek at 1309 S Canyon Ave. This is a one-story home available in the heart of Lamesa, TX awaiting a buyer seeking a renovation-ready home, or a great investment. With 1,024 square feet of interior space, you can customize it to your personal liking. This fixer-upper home also sits on a decently sized 5,500 square foot lot of land. This property has direct access to US-87 and US-180. There are also tons of great destinations such as Forest Park, and the Lamesa Municipal Airport. Contact us today for more information. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream investment.

Key facts

• Decently sized lot
• One story home
• 5,488 sq ft lot

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• RENOVATION READY HOME
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• DIRECT ACCESS TO US-87
• DIRECT ACCESS TO US-180
• DECENTLY SIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#445 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamesa ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #755 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lamesa Schools (math 19% / reading 26%, 1,588 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 36% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $249 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 412 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 412 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.61%
• DSCR: 4.45
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,985
• List price: $35,999
• Delta: -32.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $35,684
• Equity at exit: $5,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.39×
• Total profit: $84,525
• Equity at exit: $3,113

Cash invested: $10,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79331

• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $160/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $275

Max offer price $35,999

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $662	+0% $652	+5% $642	+10% $632
Rent	-10% $565	-5% $608	+0% $652	+5% $695	+10% $739
Rate	-1.0pp $670	-0.5pp $661	base $652	+0.5pp $643	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,000
• Closing costs: $1,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1101 S 15th St Lamesa, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,100	$0.93	45d	1	0.90mi
1105 S 12th St Lamesa, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	45d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,999 Active 412 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,999 Active 411 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,999 Active 409 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,999 Active 408 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,999 Active 407 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,999 Active 406 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,999 Active 404 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,999 Active 403 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,999 Active 400 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,999 Active 399 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,999 Active 398 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,999 Active 396 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,999 Active 394 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,999 Active 393 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,999 Active 392 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,999 Active 391 DOM
17. 2026-02-17
    price $35,999 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    INVESTORS! Calling all investors! Take a peek at 1309 S Canyon Ave. This is a one-story home available in the heart of Lamesa, TX awaiting a buyer seeking a renovation-ready home, or a great investment. With 1,024 square feet of interior space, you can customize it to your personal liking. This fixer-upper home also sits on a decently sized 5,500 square foot lot of land. This property has direct access to US-87 and US-180. There are also tons of great destinations such as Forest Park, and the Lamesa Municipal Airport. Contact us today for more information. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream investment.

18. 2025-05-05
    listed $37,999 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    INVESTORS! Calling all investors! Take a peek at 1309 S Canyon Ave. This is a one-story home available in the heart of Lamesa, TX awaiting a buyer seeking a renovation-ready home, or a great investment. With 1,024 square feet of interior space, you can customize it to your personal liking. This fixer-upper home also sits on a decently sized 5,500 square foot lot of land. This property has direct access to US-87 and US-180. There are also tons of great destinations such as Forest Park, and the Lamesa Municipal Airport. Contact us today for more information. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream investment.

19. 2006-08-14
    soldstatus
20. 1998-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $160 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 312.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,017
• − Property taxes: −$160
• − Insurance: −$180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$1,047
• Taxable income: $7,685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $5,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamesa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826610
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,346
• Composite: 18.85/100
• National rank: #8862
• State rank: #755 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lamesa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #9067

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lamesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,751

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,411 people
• By 2030: 12,268 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 12,260 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 12,117 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 11,504 · -7.3%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 34% Two or more races 24% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Polish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.0% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+50.6 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.06%
• Current HPI: 135.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $35,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $37,999 HARMLS
• 2006-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $160 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.