120 Mainsail Ct Lot 10 · Duck, NC 27949

$50,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,330 sqft · Condo · 22 Days on market

Built 1988

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the EARNEST - Share #3. ONE LEVEL LIVING! Home features a two-way fireplace between the living and dining rooms. SHIPS WATCH is an Oceanfront to Soundfront resort community in the heart of Duck. Fractional ownership at Ships Watch is a wonderful way for your family to experience a lifetime of vacationing in the Outer Banks at a fraction of the cost of whole home ownership. Ships Watch fractional owners purchase 10% ownership of the home and get 5 weeks of use each year. Ownership is deeded and goes beyond your lifetime. Weeks shift annually and calendars for the next few years are available. Homes are completely furnished down to beach chairs and an umbrella. The year round on-site staff takes care of all maintenance and housekeeping. Community amenities include private beach access, pool and hot tub, tennis courts, playground, Soundfront pier, boat ramp, weekly poolside picnics and planned summer activities for all ages. Town of Duck is walking distance and offers great watersport activities, restaurants, shopping and so much more!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Community amenities
• Olympic sized pool

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• UPDATED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• OLYMPIC SIZED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Boat dock; Playground; Association fees include cable TV, electricity, grounds maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Underground parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential stock cooperative (co-ownership, 5 weeks+)
• Construction: Wood siding frame construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Outdoor private pool (above-ground; association access); Corner lot; Paved roads; Private maintained road; Association boat dock; Playground

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Ice maker; Wine cooler; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 partial bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Wet bar; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 100.4% vs local median 1.2% in Duck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Dare County Schools (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #77 of 178 in NC (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 371 units permitted in Dare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dare County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $50k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 100.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 336.04%
• DSCR: 15.95
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.26×
• Total profit: $241,676
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 39.02×
• Total profit: $532,302
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27949

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $3,920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,955	-5% $3,938	+0% $3,920	+5% $3,903	+10% $3,886
Rent	-10% $3,494	-5% $3,707	+0% $3,920	+5% $4,134	+10% $4,347
Rate	-1.0pp $3,946	-0.5pp $3,933	base $3,920	+0.5pp $3,908	+1.0pp $3,894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Duck Ridge Village Ct Unit 2 Duck, NC	4.0	3.5	2700	$5,400	$2.00	22d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2025-03-29
    price $50,000
17. 2024-08-30
    listed $53,000 Active
18. 2023-09-06
    status Active
19. 2023-08-14
    historical
20. 2022-10-03
    listed $60,000 Active
21. 2020-07-10
    soldstatus $20,000 1059-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    Welcome to the EARNEST - Share #3. ONE LEVEL LIVING! Home features a two-way fireplace between the living and dining rooms. SHIPS WATCH is an Oceanfront to Soundfront resort community in the heart of Duck. Fractional ownership at Ships Watch is a wonderful way for your family to experience a lifetime of vacationing in the Outer Banks at a fraction of the cost of whole home ownership. Ships Watch fractional owners purchase 10% ownership of the home and get 5 weeks of use each year. Ownership is deeded and goes beyond your lifetime. Weeks shift annually and calendars for the next few years are available. Homes are completely furnished down to beach chairs and an umbrella. The year round on-site staff takes care of all maintenance and housekeeping. Community amenities include private beach access, pool and hot tub, tennis courts, playground, Soundfront pier, boat ramp, weekly poolside picnics and planned summer activities for all ages. Town of Duck is walking distance and offers great watersport activities, restaurants, shopping and so much more!

22. 2019-08-20
    listed $20,000 1059-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    Welcome to the EARNEST - Share #3. ONE LEVEL LIVING! Home features a two-way fireplace between the living and dining rooms. SHIPS WATCH is an Oceanfront to Soundfront resort community in the heart of Duck. Fractional ownership at Ships Watch is a wonderful way for your family to experience a lifetime of vacationing in the Outer Banks at a fraction of the cost of whole home ownership. Ships Watch fractional owners purchase 10% ownership of the home and get 5 weeks of use each year. Ownership is deeded and goes beyond your lifetime. Weeks shift annually and calendars for the next few years are available. Homes are completely furnished down to beach chairs and an umbrella. The year round on-site staff takes care of all maintenance and housekeeping. Community amenities include private beach access, pool and hot tub, tennis courts, playground, Soundfront pier, boat ramp, weekly poolside picnics and planned summer activities for all ages. Town of Duck is walking distance and offers great watersport activities, restaurants, shopping and so much more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,184
• − Management: −$5,184
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $49,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,802
• After-tax cash flow: $35,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dare County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701110
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,233
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3866
• State rank: #77 of 178 in NC

Livability — Duck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duck, NC
• Population (ZIP): 8,094

Population outlook (Dare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,201 people
• By 2030: 40,756 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 43,015 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 44,477 · +13.5%
• By 2075: 48,522 · +23.8%
• By 2100: 50,980 · +30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dare

• 2024 margin: R (+18.8) · D 40.1% · R 58.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -18.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.8 2020: R+16.5 2016: R+22.1 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.21%
• Current HPI: 274.0118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $50,000 OBMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $53,000 OBMLS
• 2023-09-06 Relisted — OBMLS
• 2023-08-14 Delisted — OBMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $60,000 OBMLS
• 2020-07-10 Sold (MLS) $20,000 OBMLS
• 2019-08-20 Listed $20,000 OBMLS