5101 Watkins · Jackson, MS 39206

$89,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1971 0.37 ac lot Est $175k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the cutest house, totally remodeled!!! 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath, New Appliances, Granite Countertops,Stainless Steel Appliances, Great Scored Floors,Fresh Paint throughout, Ceramic Tile in bathrooms, Master Suite has two walk-in closets, Security System, Garage Door will be installed with contract, Home Warranty, Large rooms, Newly poured porch, seller is willing to make tree removal concessions. This is a great home especially for the price.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features: Other

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage; Driveway with concrete surface
• Security: Security features (unspecified)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; City lot

Interior

• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Blinds on windows; Security door features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Jackson Elementary School (math 7% / reading 25%, grade F, #270 of 375 statewide, top 72%, 383 students, 100% FRL); Powell Middle School (math 3% / reading 6%, grade F, #177 of 179 statewide, top 99%, 320 students, 100% FRL); Callaway High School (math 3% / reading 10%, grade F, #191 of 197 statewide, top 97%, 923 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,825/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1554% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.96%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,305
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Lake Of Pines Drive Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,891 (+0%)	18mo	$180,000	$95	72
4678 Nisqually Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+2%)	11mo	$190,000	$99	71
356 Lake Of Pines Dr	0.07mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,952 (+4%)	19mo	$159,900	$82	70
107 Lake Of Pines Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-9%)	3mo	$205,000	$120	62
135 Bedford Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (-1%)	12mo	$174,000	$93	59
4689 Nordell Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,928 (+2%)	22mo	$175,000	$91	56
225 Somerset Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,651 (-12%)	8mo	$190,000	$115	51
910 Watkins Pl	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,071 (+10%)	4mo	$169,900	$82	49
638 Elmwood Cir	0.60mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,019 (+7%)	12mo	$39,900	$20	45
4688 Nordell Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-15%)	15mo	$148,900	$93	39
644 Heather Lane Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,980 (+5%)	20mo	$55,000	$28	35
612 Heather Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,642 (-13%)	14mo	$87,900	$54	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $37,196
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $98,252
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39206

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,387/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $790

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $868	-5% $843	+0% $817	+5% $792	+10% $766
Rent	-10% $673	-5% $745	+0% $817	+5% $889	+10% $961
Rate	-1.0pp $862	-0.5pp $840	base $817	+0.5pp $794	+1.0pp $770

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
612 Heather Ln Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,675	$1.02	24d	1	0.76mi
815 Berwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,300	$1.04	44d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 51-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,387 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,387 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,387
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $8,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,138
• After-tax cash flow: $7,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 23,257
• Household income: $42,686
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.38%
• Current HPI: 194.5873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.83%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+349.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $89,900 MLSU
• 2012-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2012-04-06 Listed $79,900 MLSU
• 2011-05-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-10-18 Listed $20,000 MLSU
• 2010-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1975-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,387 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.