16811 Manor St · Detroit, MI 48221

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1938 3,920 sqft lot Est $69k · 35% under ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1,516 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, brick bungalow located in Arcadia Park. Well-proportioned layout with good natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas. Bedrooms offer solid size and closet space. Full basement provides additional storage and laundry. Property will need roof repair/replacement, presenting a strong opportunity for a flip or value-add rental investment. Great potential for investors or rehab buyers looking for upside.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1938
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 10.0% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.69%
• DSCR: 3.97
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,970
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16516 Appoline St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,350 (+8%)	1mo	$39,500	$29	78
16800 Ilene St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,298 (+4%)	1mo	$210,000	$162	70
16562 Tracey St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,244 (-1%)	2mo	$60,000	$48	69
15771 Birwood St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,290 (+3%)	0mo	$128,995	$100	66
17621 Meyers Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (+1%)	0mo	$40,000	$32	65
16176 Tracey St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+1%)	1mo	$70,000	$55	64
17147 Appoline St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	1mo	$170,000	$155	64
17161 Ward Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,377 (+10%)	2mo	$194,500	$141	62
16180 Snowden St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,137 (-9%)	0mo	$61,000	$54	61
16863 Tracey St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	2mo	$165,000	$138	58
15824 Snowden St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,127 (-10%)	1mo	$61,000	$54	54
15824 Snowden St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,127 (-10%)	1mo	$61,000	$54	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $37,872
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $92,954
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,267/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $724	-5% $711	+0% $699	+5% $686	+10% $673
Rent	-10% $593	-5% $646	+0% $699	+5% $752	+10% $805
Rate	-1.0pp $721	-0.5pp $710	base $699	+0.5pp $687	+1.0pp $675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16204 Steel St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	969	$1,150	$1.19	45d	1	0.30mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	21d	1	0.36mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	19d	1	0.38mi
16230 Cheyenne St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1653	$1,450	$0.88	45d	1	0.40mi
17540 Pinehurst St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.43mi
15760 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	45d	1	0.57mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	19d	1	0.62mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	45d	1	0.65mi
15512 Mendota St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	931	$1,200	$1.29	6d	1	0.66mi
15512 Mendota St Apt 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.66mi
15708 Birwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1255	$1,100	$0.88	6d	1	0.66mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	45d	1	0.67mi
15765 Washburn St Unit 15767 Washburn Upper Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1093	$950	$0.87	0d	1	0.68mi
16505 Stansbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	12d	1	0.75mi
16505 Stansbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,345	$0.79	45d	1	0.75mi
15388 Appoline St #203 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	45d	1	0.77mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	6d	1	0.80mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	21d	1	0.81mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	26d	1	0.81mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	6d	1	0.81mi
18010 Lesure St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,500	$1.49	0d	1	0.84mi
15791 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1792	$1,100	$0.61	45d	1	0.89mi
15517 Lesure St Unit BDRM1A Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	26d	1	0.92mi
18675 Meyers Rd Unit 18677 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	942	$1,100	$1.17	45d	1	0.96mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	26d	1	0.96mi
15340 Hartwell St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	18d	1	0.96mi
15088 Littlefield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1294	$1,275	$0.99	23d	1	1.01mi
18512 Schaefer Hwy Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	962	$1,200	$1.25	26d	1	1.02mi
15387 Lesure St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	14d	1	1.02mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	45d	1	1.04mi
15762 Mark Twain St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,250	$0.87	18d	1	1.06mi
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	26d	1	1.07mi
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	18d	1	1.08mi
14881 Mendota St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,100	$1.07	26d	1	1.12mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	19d	1	1.13mi
18257 Mark Twain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,507	$1.27	18d	1	1.16mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	45d	1	1.16mi
18935 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,523	$1.22	6d	1	1.16mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	45d	1	1.22mi
14891 Hartwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   1,516 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, brick bungalow located in Arcadia Park. Well-proportioned layout with good natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas. Bedrooms offer solid size and closet space. Full basement provides additional storage and laundry. Property will need roof repair/replacement, presenting a strong opportunity for a flip or value-add rental investment. Great potential for investors or rehab buyers looking for upside.

2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   1,516 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, brick bungalow located in Arcadia Park. Well-proportioned layout with good natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas. Bedrooms offer solid size and closet space. Full basement provides additional storage and laundry. Property will need roof repair/replacement, presenting a strong opportunity for a flip or value-add rental investment. Great potential for investors or rehab buyers looking for upside.

3. 2026-04-15
   listed $44,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   1,516 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, brick bungalow located in Arcadia Park. Well-proportioned layout with good natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas. Bedrooms offer solid size and closet space. Full basement provides additional storage and laundry. Property will need roof repair/replacement, presenting a strong opportunity for a flip or value-add rental investment. Great potential for investors or rehab buyers looking for upside.

4. 2026-04-15
   listed $44,900 Active 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   1,516 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, brick bungalow located in Arcadia Park. Well-proportioned layout with good natural flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas. Bedrooms offer solid size and closet space. Full basement provides additional storage and laundry. Property will need roof repair/replacement, presenting a strong opportunity for a flip or value-add rental investment. Great potential for investors or rehab buyers looking for upside.

5. 2024-02-04
   historical $1,100
6. 2024-01-01
   price $1,100
7. 2023-12-13
   price $1,200
8. 2023-10-20
   listed $1,300
9. 2006-11-06
   soldstatus $110,000
10. 2004-06-30
    historical
11. 2003-12-30
    listed $95,000
12. 2003-02-26
    historical
13. 2002-08-27
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,267 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,267
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $8,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,966
• After-tax cash flow: $6,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-59.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-15 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-15 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-04 Rental Removed $1,100 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-01 Price Changed $1,100 BUILDIUM
• 2023-12-13 Price Changed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2023-10-20 Listed for Rent $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2006-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-12-30 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-02-26 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-08-27 Listed $110,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,267 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.