227 Cedar Point Rd · Forsyth, MO 65653

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 862 sqft · Other · 216 Days on market

Built 1935 9,148 sqft lot $128/sqft · 43% below area Est $194k · 43% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Have you ever imagined waking up and strolling to the lake? Well, I've got just the place for you! This incredible 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom Lakeview home with a garage on Cedar Point Road in Forsyth, Missouri, is exactly what you've been dreaming of. It's a one-of-a-kind gem that's not often seen on the market. Picture this: a perfect spot to unwind and soak up the great outdoors. The family has cherished this lake property for generations, and now they're ready to pass it on to another family who can create their own unforgettable memories on Lake Taneycomo. This charming Lakeview home boasts a cozy living room with a two-deck perfect for entertaining. The family room and dining room are connected by a rock fireplace with crystals and fossils embedded in the stonework. The fireplace was crafted by skilled artisans who truly poured their hearts and souls into it. The kitchen is located further down the hall, with its own rock fireplace and double hatch door that leads to the second deck. There are two bedrooms and one bathroom off the living room, and there's even an added basement for extra storage. And let's not forget the detached garage, where you can keep your toys and vehicles safe and sound. Oh, and don't forget the lakefront lot just down the road! This truly remarkable property is sure to impress. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to make this your new home on Lake Taneycomo.

Key facts

• Lakefront lot
• Two-deck
• Extra storage

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LOT
• ROCK FIREPLACE
• TWO-DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-945/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Forsyth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#220 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Forsyth R-III (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #78 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,253 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,076
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -43.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-22,830
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-26,288
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65653

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $98,599

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-03-07
    status Active 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    Have you ever imagined waking up and strolling to the lake? Well, I've got just the place for you! This incredible 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom Lakeview home with a garage on Cedar Point Road in Forsyth, Missouri, is exactly what you've been dreaming of. It's a one-of-a-kind gem that's not often seen on the market. Picture this: a perfect spot to unwind and soak up the great outdoors. The family has cherished this lake property for generations, and now they're ready to pass it on to another family who can create their own unforgettable memories on Lake Taneycomo. This charming Lakeview home boasts a cozy living room with a two-deck perfect for entertaining. The family room and dining room are connected by a rock fireplace with crystals and fossils embedded in the stonework. The fireplace was crafted by skilled artisans who truly poured their hearts and souls into it. The kitchen is located further down the hall, with its own rock fireplace and double hatch door that leads to the second deck. There are two bedrooms and one bathroom off the living room, and there's even an added basement for extra storage. And let's not forget the detached garage, where you can keep your toys and vehicles safe and sound. Oh, and don't forget the lakefront lot just down the road! This truly remarkable property is sure to impress. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to make this your new home on Lake Taneycomo.

17. 2026-02-27
    status Pending 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    Have you ever imagined waking up and strolling to the lake? Well, I've got just the place for you! This incredible 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom Lakeview home with a garage on Cedar Point Road in Forsyth, Missouri, is exactly what you've been dreaming of. It's a one-of-a-kind gem that's not often seen on the market. Picture this: a perfect spot to unwind and soak up the great outdoors. The family has cherished this lake property for generations, and now they're ready to pass it on to another family who can create their own unforgettable memories on Lake Taneycomo. This charming Lakeview home boasts a cozy living room with a two-deck perfect for entertaining. The family room and dining room are connected by a rock fireplace with crystals and fossils embedded in the stonework. The fireplace was crafted by skilled artisans who truly poured their hearts and souls into it. The kitchen is located further down the hall, with its own rock fireplace and double hatch door that leads to the second deck. There are two bedrooms and one bathroom off the living room, and there's even an added basement for extra storage. And let's not forget the detached garage, where you can keep your toys and vehicles safe and sound. Oh, and don't forget the lakefront lot just down the road! This truly remarkable property is sure to impress. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to make this your new home on Lake Taneycomo.

18. 2026-02-26
    price $110,000 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    Have you ever imagined waking up and strolling to the lake? Well, I've got just the place for you! This incredible 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom Lakeview home with a garage on Cedar Point Road in Forsyth, Missouri, is exactly what you've been dreaming of. It's a one-of-a-kind gem that's not often seen on the market. Picture this: a perfect spot to unwind and soak up the great outdoors. The family has cherished this lake property for generations, and now they're ready to pass it on to another family who can create their own unforgettable memories on Lake Taneycomo. This charming Lakeview home boasts a cozy living room with a two-deck perfect for entertaining. The family room and dining room are connected by a rock fireplace with crystals and fossils embedded in the stonework. The fireplace was crafted by skilled artisans who truly poured their hearts and souls into it. The kitchen is located further down the hall, with its own rock fireplace and double hatch door that leads to the second deck. There are two bedrooms and one bathroom off the living room, and there's even an added basement for extra storage. And let's not forget the detached garage, where you can keep your toys and vehicles safe and sound. Oh, and don't forget the lakefront lot just down the road! This truly remarkable property is sure to impress. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to make this your new home on Lake Taneycomo.

19. 2025-11-07
    listed $125,000 Active 1416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

    Have you ever imagined waking up and strolling to the lake? Well, I've got just the place for you! This incredible 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom Lakeview home with a garage on Cedar Point Road in Forsyth, Missouri, is exactly what you've been dreaming of. It's a one-of-a-kind gem that's not often seen on the market. Picture this: a perfect spot to unwind and soak up the great outdoors. The family has cherished this lake property for generations, and now they're ready to pass it on to another family who can create their own unforgettable memories on Lake Taneycomo. This charming Lakeview home boasts a cozy living room with a two-deck perfect for entertaining. The family room and dining room are connected by a rock fireplace with crystals and fossils embedded in the stonework. The fireplace was crafted by skilled artisans who truly poured their hearts and souls into it. The kitchen is located further down the hall, with its own rock fireplace and double hatch door that leads to the second deck. There are two bedrooms and one bathroom off the living room, and there's even an added basement for extra storage. And let's not forget the detached garage, where you can keep your toys and vehicles safe and sound. Oh, and don't forget the lakefront lot just down the road! This truly remarkable property is sure to impress. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to make this your new home on Lake Taneycomo.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$828
• − Management: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$2,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$688
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth R-III
• NCES district ID: 2912240
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,521
• Composite: 39.31/100
• National rank: #3991
• State rank: #78 of 324 in MO

Livability — Forsyth

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #10860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,956

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.53%
• Current HPI: 238.0939
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-02-27 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $110,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-07 Listed $125,000 SOMO

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $151 · -42.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.